China Sets Lowest GDP Growth Target Since Early 1990s at 4.5%–5%

On Thursday, Beijing announced its 2026 growth target at 4.5%–5%, the least ambitious goal since the early 1990s. The Iran war threatens China's energy supply, as Iran is a critical oil supplier, and China has already ordered its largest state oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Youth unemployment stands at 16.3%, the nationwide jobless rate averaged 5.2% last year, and consumer prices remained flat. New industries like AI, robotics, and electric cars added only 0.8 percentage points to GDP between 2023 and 2025, while traditional sectors including real estate declined a combined 6 percentage points. To support growth, China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($188.5 billion) in special treasury bonds and allocate 250 billion yuan toward a consumer goods trade-in program, down from 300 billion yuan last year. The government pledged to create 12 million urban jobs targeting a 5.5% urban jobless rate, without specifying how.