Cutting Immigration Could Cost the UK and U.S. Billions as Economists Warn of Higher Taxes and Slower Growth

Governments reducing immigration to ease public concern over welfare spending and jobs may be setting off a damaging chain reaction. In the UK, net migration has already fallen sharply, from 924,000 in 2023 and 649,000 in 2024 to around 200,000 in both 2025 and 2026. The UK's budget watchdog estimates this drop will reduce the country's overall economic growth by 0.35 percentage points in 2026 versus 2025. Brexit, a comparable policy shift, has already cost the UK an estimated 6% to 8% of its total economic output since 2016. In the U.S., the Brookings Institution estimates that Trump's immigration crackdown, which produced the first negative net migration figure in 50 years in 2025, will cut U.S. economic growth by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points in 2026, through lost consumer spending, reduced labour supply, and lower savings.