Fed Rate Decision Looms; PCE Inflation at 3.7% Remains Key

Fed Rate Hike Odds Exceed 90% as PCE Inflation Stays Elevated

Market pricing now assigns over 90% probability to a Fed rate increase, driven by persistent PCE inflation at 3.7% versus the 2% target. USD strength expected across major pairs; EUR/USD and GBP/USD vulnerable to hawkish repricing as traders reassess terminal rate expectations.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/chances-first-fed-rate-hike-150301317.html

Fed Rate Decision Sept 16: PCE Inflation at 3.7% Is the Call

The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate decision hinges on PCE inflation running at 3.7%, well above the 2% target, not recent CPI declines. USD strength likely if inflation data reinforces hawkish hold; weakness if softer PCE justifies cuts. EUR/USD, GBP/USD most sensitive to the outcome.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-1-thing-investors-know-162625751.html

Fed Rate Decision in Focus Amid PCE Inflation Concerns

Investors await the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision as PCE inflation sits at 3.7%, well above the 2% target, overshadowing recent CPI declines. USD strength likely if hawkish tilt confirmed; EUR/USD and GBP/USD most exposed to outcome. Market pricing hinges on inflation trajectory, not calendar expectations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/all-eyes-on-the-fed-what-nyse-insider-jay-woods-is-watching-this-week.html

Fed Rate Hike Expected This Week After Hot Inflation Data

Hot PCE inflation at 3.7%—well above the Fed's 2% target—is driving expectations for a rate hike this week. USD strength likely as higher US rates support dollar positioning; EUR/USD and GBP/USD face downside pressure heading into the decision.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-rate-hike-expected-week-173441081.html