IMF Warns Global Recession Risk as Iran War Cuts Growth Outlook and Sends Oil Above $100

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global growth forecast as the Iran war drives energy prices higher and disrupts supply. The outlook follows rising tensions that pushed oil near $100 per barrel, forcing the IMF to model three scenarios. Its base case assumes a short conflict, with global growth at 3.1% in 2026, down 0.2 points, and oil averaging $82 per barrel. Without the war, growth would have risen to 3.4%. In a worse scenario, growth drops to 2.5%, while a severe case cuts it to 2.0%, near recession levels seen only four times since 1980. The IMF said 10.1 million barrels per day were lost in March. Inflation could exceed 6% in 2026, with oil hitting $110 in 2026 and $125 in 2027, forcing tighter policies.