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Breaking Posted 18 days ago

US-Iran escalation pushes oil higher, Fed hike odds rise

News
Fresh US-Iran military strikes drove oil prices and bond yields sharply higher, shifting Fed expectations toward a September rate hike after July FOMC minutes showed three dissents for a 25bp move. Oil strength and hawkish repricing support USD and weigh on commodity-linked currencies; traders now focus on PMI and jobless claims to confirm growth trajectory.
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Latest Updates

2 weeks ago

Middle East tensions lift crude oil and European gas prices

Crude oil and diesel cracks strengthened while European gas hit its highest level since 2023 as Middle East escalation intensified and Persian Gulf LNG export recovery expectations faded. Energy-sensitive currencies like NOK and RUB may see modest support, but the market is currently fixated on Fed rate expectations and Friday's PMI data; this story has limited near-term FX traction.

https://think.ing.com/articles/the-commodities-feed-further-escalation-pushes-the-energy-complex-higher020926/
2 weeks ago

Brent Crude Targets $102 on Iran Supply Risk; Gold Retreats Below $4,300

Iran escalation is lifting Brent toward $102 via supply concerns, while gold cracks below $4,300 as rising rate expectations outweigh geopolitical safe-haven demand. Higher oil prices fuel inflation expectations, pushing real yields higher and reducing bullion's opportunity cost appeal. The rate channel is currently dominating gold's directional bias.

https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/652590-iran-escalation-pushes-brent-toward-102-as-gold-cracks-4300/
2 weeks ago

Fed's Williams: Recent inflation data encouraging

Fed President John Williams stated recent inflation data have been encouraging, supporting the hawkish repricing narrative after July FOMC dissents. USD strength continues as markets price September rate path; this commentary reinforces Fed resolve on inflation control, relevant to dollar positioning ahead of Friday PMI and jobless-claims data.

https://x.com/financialjuice/status/2095125576272998817
2 weeks ago

Fed September rate hike odds surge to 70% from 37%

Traders now price a 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike in September, up sharply from 37% last week, as oil prices and inflation concerns push Treasury yields higher. This repricing of hawkish Fed expectations is driving dollar strength; USD pairs, particularly EUR/USD and GBP/USD, face near-term headwinds as rate differentials widen in favor of the greenback ahead of the September FOMC decision.

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2095133520754581653
What are your thoughts?

Replies

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R
@robert_sondreli · 2 weeks ago

I'm Canadian & support Iran 100%. They were no threat to the U.S. & have the right to defend themselves & other people in the region being brutalized by the Americans and Israelis.

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D
@dipuo_kefilwe · 2 weeks ago

Easy to say from the comfort of your warm blanket in Ontario

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L
@liam_calgary · 2 weeks ago

Thoughts and prayers for the people of Iran

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S
@sizwe_twala · 2 weeks ago

Hell on earth

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J
@jay_malema · 2 weeks ago

Iranian inflation reaching 70% and yet they keep fighting a super power whose inflation is below 4%, talk about foolishness SMH

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P
@paul_petit · 2 weeks ago

We know the drill: America attacks and Iran vows

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M
@melody_nk · 2 weeks ago

have they got to the stone ages yet?

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N
@njunga_22 · 2 weeks ago

Iran has become the living dead

0
Reply
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