U.S. Leading Economic Index Falls Again in September

The U.S. economy showed further signs of slowing as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.3% in September 2025 to 98.3, matching August’s revised drop. This marks the second consecutive month of decline. Over the six months between March and September, the LEI fell by 2.1%, a sharper decline than the 1.3% fall recorded in the previous six-month period. The Conference Board said weakening expectations from consumers and businesses caused the contraction. Contributions were negative from consumer expectations, ISM New Orders Index, new orders of consumer goods & materials, inverted jobless claims, and the yield curve, while components like stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers' new orders of nondefense capital goods excl. aircraft contributed positively. The Coincident Index rose 0.1% in September and the Lagging Index also edged up 0.1%. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026, citing fragile and uneven growth as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum.