JP225 (NIKKEI) Market Analysis and Trade Setups

JP225 Market Analysis
Trend: Bullish
Bias: Bullish
Technical Outlook: Monthly Ascending Channel

Analysis: The Monthly Timeframe depicts the overall picture of price activities on the asset, capturing the bullish sequence of Higher highs and higher lows.
This month, price shows strong bearish activities that drove price down to the major support region at 57000 before strong bullish activities intercepted heavily.
Despite price trading outside the confines of the Ascending Channel, pushing below the lower trendline that has acted as Dynamic Support in times past, we can't conclude that price has done a breakout out of the channel until the monthly candle closes at the end of the month.
If it closes with a body below the lower trendline, then a breakout is said to occur and the channel invalidated.

Also, on the monthly, If the November monthly candle flips bullish and closes inside the Channel, above the dynamic support (Lower trendline), then the lower wick of the candle will represent a monthly fakeout of the channel.

On the Weekly, the rebound on the Major support zone (57,000-58000) shows vividly with a strong weekly momentum candle that depicts the trading activities of this week.
Often times, the first rebound from a Major zone shows the presence and activeness of bulls or bears in that zone, in this case, the bulls. Then the second rebound that often creates a double bottom shows defence and often leads to a bigger momentum that can create a higher high, breaking the neckline of the double bottom.
In this JP225 case, there's only the first touch which signals Active presence of the bulls at the zone, and I'll anticipate a revisit at the zone for a second touch and if it creates a double bottom, then that shows Active defence of the zone by the bulls and they are ready to defend the level and prevent a further downside.

On the Weekly, the rebound on the Major support zone (57,000-58000) shows vividly with a strong weekly momentum candle that depicts the trading activities of this week.
Often times, the first rebound from a Major zone shows the presence and activeness of bulls or bears in that zone, in this case, the bulls. Then the second rebound that often creates a double bottom shows defence and often leads to a bigger momentum that can create a higher high, breaking the neckline of the double bottom.
In this JP225 case, there's only the first touch which signals Active presence of the bulls at the zone, and I'll anticipate a revisit at the zone for a second touch and if it creates a double bottom, then that shows Active defence of the zone by the bulls and they are ready to defend the level and prevent a further downside.

On the Daily, I've spotted 3 market phases on the Daily chart.
1) The Ascending Channel - This phase showed when the market was in an uptrend this year. It lasted throughout the first and second quarter of the year.
2) The Horizontal Channel - This phase shows when the market was trading sideways, after the uptrend phase. This lasted throughout the third quarter of the year.
3) The Descending Channel - This phase shows the current phase of the market, depicting the asset is currently in a downtrend and there's more bearish activities dominating it.

Despite the rebound at the Major Weekly Support zone at 57,000-58000 price region, without invalidation of the descending channel particularly the dynamic resistance, there's high tendency of price continuing the downside bearish move, till the month is over.

The descending channel remains the main concern on JP225. watch the 57,000–58,000 support zone, but unless buyers break and close above the channel's dynamic resistance, I would favour bearish continuation. A rejection at that resistance could offer a short setup, with a confirmed break above it invalidating the bearish view.