How to trade NFP in forex
Step 1: Switch to 15M timeframe & mark the high/low of the first NFP candle
Once NFP is released, a big candle will form on your 15 minute chart and this candle could either be bullish or bearish it doesn't matter. I used a blue dotted horizontal line to mark the highest and lowest price of that big candle.
Step 2: Wait for Price to breach the lines you drew
The lines you drew to mark the high/low of the NFP candle will now act as support/resistance. So, for me I just wait for price to breach the blue dotted line then i trade the breakout. In the diagram, price breached the lower support line so I shorted on the second 15 minute candle.
Step 1: Switch to 15M timeframe & mark the high/low of the first NFP candle
Once NFP is released, a big candle will form on your 15 minute chart and this candle could either be bullish or bearish it doesn't matter. I used a blue dotted horizontal line to mark the highest and lowest price of that big candle.
Step 2: Wait for Price to breach the lines you drew
The lines you drew to mark the high/low of the NFP candle will now act as support/resistance. So, for me I just wait for price to breach the blue dotted line then i trade the breakout. In the diagram, price breached the lower support line so I shorted on the second 15 minute candle.
I agree with the above strategy used by @Arthurwildberry because I have also used it. What I will add is that when trading NFP, avoid using pending orders because the broker may not execute them.
If you set a buy stop or sell stop order, the price may gap through your stop price nullifying your order.
I use a similar strategy as @Arthur I wait at the 15 minute time frame for the first NFP candle to form then after it forms, its upper wick is marked as my resistance and tits lower wick is marked as my support.
I wait for price to reach the support/resistance and bounce off before I trade. As you can see in the image, after the first NFP 15 minute candle, price fell and touched the support line below then started rising so in such a case you go long.
An alternative NFP strategy is to get in 20 minutes before the news is released because oonce NFP is released the broker will widen the spread.
In the attached image I have opened a two short trades on EUR/USD and I got in early (20 minutes before news release) so I got low spread of 0.5 pips.
Why did I decide to go short? Well because yesterday, the US initial jobless claims report was released and EUR/USD reacted by falling. So, the jobless claim is related to NFP hence I expect the same reaction of falling price.
But look, NFP trading is just us making an educated guess, I may be right or wrong. I have also set my stop loss far away and my take profit too.
I would have loved to use a guaranteed stop loss to prevent slippage but my broker doesnt offer it on this account.
So in this case I was right and the price is falling after NFP has been released at exactly 2:30 pm.
