News for Today

📰 Today's Market Focus: U.S. Inflation & Growth Data

All eyes are on the U.S. economic calendar today as traders prepare for a wave of high-impact releases, including Core PCE Inflation, GDP Growth, Durable Goods Orders, and Jobless Claims.

The spotlight remains on Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and boost demand for the U.S. Dollar.

Bureau of Economic Analysis +2

Expect elevated volatility across: 🇺🇸 USD Pairs

🥇 Gold (XAUUSD)

📈 NAS100

📉 US30

Oh thanks but what is the difference between PCE and CPI don't they both measure inflation? Why does the FED prefer to use PCE ?

You can think of it like this:

CPI tells you what retail traders are reacting to.

PCE tells you what the Fed is reacting to.

And since institutional money follows central bank policy expectations, PCE often has a deeper impact on long-term market direction.

That's why many professional traders pay attention to CPI for volatility, but they pay even closer attention to Core PCE when trying to understand where the Fed may take interest rates next.

PCE measures the prices of goods and services consumed by households, but with a broader and more flexible methodology.

CPI measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services.

What is the so called broader methodology of PCE? I think that is what brenda is asking.

The key idea is that CPI measures the cost of a fixed lifestyle, while PCE measures how consumers and the economy actually adapt when prices change. That's the "broader methodology" economists are referring to.

Any serious news ?

All are serious news but it's the impact of the news we aren't sure of

That's not correct 😂it doesn't even make any sense. What do you mean by "fixed lifestyle"? and what do you mean by PCE measures how consumers adapt? I thought PCE measures cost of living so which one is adapt?

Pardon my choice of words 😂

PCE measures inflation using expenditure weights that adjust as consumer spending patterns change, whereas CPI relies more heavily on a fixed basket approach.

PCE and CPI measure the US inflation rate but they use different approaches. CPI is focused on out-of-pocket- expense of US residents meaning goods/services paid for from their personal account/wallet/pocket etc. PCE covers both out-of-pocket expense and goes further to cover expenses incurred by US residents but not paid for from their account/pocket. For instance if a US resident has a gym membership paid for by his office, PCE will cover it while CPI will not. Because PCE takes a wider approach to estimating inflation, the US Federal Reserve prefers to use it to gauge inflation in the country. Another difference is that PCE and CPI reports are prepared by different departments. One is prepared by the US Bureau of Labor, while the other is prepared by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

📰 Market Watch | June 26

The U.S. Dollar remains in focus today as traders await the Goods Trade Balance and Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports.

The trade balance will provide insight into U.S. trade activity, while the consumer sentiment survey will reveal how confident Americans are about the economy. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce confidence in the U.S. economy and support the dollar, while weaker figures may increase selling pressure.

📊 Key Events: 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance

🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Keep an eye on USD pairs, Gold, and U.S. indices as volatility may pick up following the releases.

🗞️ Market Watch | June 30

Today's focus is on Eurozone inflation and the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report.

📌 Key Events:

🇮🇹 Italy Inflation Rate (YoY)

🇩🇪 Germany Inflation Rate (YoY)

🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings

These releases will provide fresh insight into inflation trends in Europe and labor market conditions in the United States, making EUR/USD, Gold, and U.S. indices the key markets to watch.

Stay alert around the release times—volatility is expected.

Today's economic calendar is relatively quiet, with only two high-impact events.

🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change (USD) – Most Important Event

Measures the monthly change in private-sector employment in the United States.

It's an early indicator of labor market strength and can influence expectations for future Federal Reserve decisions.

Market Expectations:

Stronger-than-expected result: Bullish USD → EURUSD likely bearish.

Weaker-than-expected result: Bearish USD → EURUSD likely bullish.

SMC Note: Expect volatility around the release. Institutions may engineer a liquidity sweep before the true move develops.

🇨🇦 Ivey PMI (CAD)

Measures the health of Canada's manufacturing and services sectors.

A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion.

Market Expectations:

Better-than-expected result strengthens the Canadian dollar.

Worse-than-expected result weakens the Canadian dollar.

This event mainly impacts USDCAD and should have minimal direct effect on EURUSD.