why is the vix dropping so fast

Anyone trade the vix here? I noticed its really down from 50 points to 20's and its surprising because i was long on the vix and its left me with a big loss😒 The US economy doesnt seem to be getting any better so why the quick drop? Thanks

I wouldnt have taken a long position if i were you, whenever the vix is that high there is a high chance it woud drop with no logical explanation. This is why i dont beleive that its impossible to beat the market because not everything follow straight jacket market rules.

Futures & VIX prices have an inverse relationship, before you trade the vix you can observe the futures market. If futures prices are going up then it means the vix is dropping or expected to drop.

G
@godswillfx - 2 months ago
Quoted - elvis_sacramento

Futures & VIX prices have an inverse relationship, before you trade the vix you can observe the futures market. If futures prices are going up then it means the vix is dropping or expected to drop.

What's correct about it:

The general inverse correlation between equity futures (like S&P 500 futures) and the VIX is well-documented and real. When the market rallies, fear tends to subside, and implied volatility drops. This is a legitimate observation.

G
@godswillfx - 2 months ago
Quoted - elvis_sacramento

Futures & VIX prices have an inverse relationship, before you trade the vix you can observe the futures market. If futures prices are going up then it means the vix is dropping or expected to drop.

- Correlation ≠ a reliable trading signal. Yes, they're generally inversely correlated, but using rising futures as a direct trigger to short VIX is dangerously reductive. The relationship breaks down during certain market conditions, especially near major events (Fed decisions, earnings seasons, geopolitical shocks).

G
@godswillfx - 2 months ago
Quoted - elvis_sacramento

Futures & VIX prices have an inverse relationship, before you trade the vix you can observe the futures market. If futures prices are going up then it means the vix is dropping or expected to drop.

VIX futures have their own term structure (contango/backwardation) that operates somewhat independently of spot VIX. You can be right about direction and still lose money on VIX products because of roll cost or decay.

- "Expected to drop" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Markets price expectations constantly. By the time you observe futures moving up, that signal may already be reflected in VIX pricing

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