Alpha Circle Nsukka | Charts, Psychology & Market Discussions

In my previous post, ranking currencies, JPY was a little sluggish alongside AUD but looking into the matter, here's what I found.

Using our famous USDJPY pair as a yardstick for research with the USD doing well, independently, I feel that the political factors around this is suppressing its potentials.

1. USD/JPY is testing the key 162 level-its July 2024 high-buoyed by an ongoing 275 basis-point yield gap between the US and Japan. The Fed’s hawkish stance, with markets pricing a better than 67% chance of a September rate hike, continues to support the dollar, while the BOJ’s June shift to a 1.0% policy rate has not meaningfully changed carry-trade pressures.

Political factors are also limiting the BOJ’s room to tighten. Prime Minister Takaichi’s government favors policies that boost domestic demand, which reduces the scope for aggressive monetary tightening. That policy divergence remains a primary structural driver of yen weakness.

2. On the technical side, the pair looks extended: the daily RSI sits at 76 and spot is almost 3% above the 200-day SMA at 157.47. Institutional activity has clustered near 161.75, indicating consolidation below a key resistance. Intervention risk is elevated; especially after talks between Finance Minister Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Bessent; but past interventions have failed to reverse the trend.

A clear break above 162 could open the way for another leg higher into untested territory, particularly if Friday’s US PCE inflation print surprises on the upside. By contrast, a softer inflation result or direct intervention could provoke profit-taking toward the 20-day SMA near 160.70.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop still favors further USD/JPY strength.

This research was done using Sucden Financial🍷

In my opinion retracement happens to pick liquidity and continues🤷

GM GM traders!

Up and grateful. I hope you're good hitting it big today?

Gm you all how is it going

Gm guys.

Last day to hit it big this week.

Lol. Just kidding.

How's it going?

Most traders think they need a better strategy.

But the truth is, most strategies already work if followed properly.

The real issue is that discipline breaks before the setup even matters.

Has your question been answered?

Gold, expected to make a fourth dip.

Pablo Sinha wrote under a Reuters article:

Gold prices were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly fall on Friday, as a resilient dollar and expectations of faster U.S. rate hikes to tame inflation kept bullion pressured near the key $4,000-per-ounce level.

GOLD was down 0.5% at $4,007.95 per ounce, as of 0610 GMT. U.S. gold futures. August delivery lost 0.6% to $4,024.10. For the week, bullion was on track for a loss of 3.6%, having slipped below the key $4,000 level for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday.

"The rapid repricing of the hawkish Fed created a strong bullish momentum in the U.S. dollar, which eventually led to this significant downward drift in gold prices," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

The U.S. dollar index was headed for a second consecutive weekly gain, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Wong sees the multi-month correction in gold, since the record high reached in late January, extending towards $3,400 in the long term. Gold prices have fallen about 29% from the record high of $5,594.82 on January 29, as inflation fuelled by the U.S.-Iran war ramped up rate-hike bets.

Data on Thursday showed that U.S. inflation increased further in May, breaking above 4.0% for the first time in three years, as forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters.

Something worthy to note in this:

Although gold is typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, it tends to lose its appeal as a non-yielding asset in a high-interest-rate environment.

That's the uncertainty that comes with the market

Yeah

On the 4H, market was bearish because following the recent structure that was printed, not just that. Go to the 30 mins or 15 mins and also see that the recent structure was still bearish.

take a look at the chart

Price just induced the low and reject the H4 candle, I have taking trades in the past that did sth like and still go my way, but at this point the chance of it playing out well is very slim

GM

Yeah it will help you alot if you stick to your recent structure

Okay, I see

I knew about this but this one you showed me on the first frame is a lower timeframe and I'm not scalping

It's not for scalping. i enter my trades from the 15 mins and aim for external liquidity in 1H and 4H timeframe and also i use the 15 mins to be sure of price recent structure

Still at entry for days now

GBPCHF already moving, still waiting for a retracement

Btc heading to 49k

Does indicators work yes they do I practically made graphic on what 50 moving average candle in 1h time-frame and 200moving average on 15mins perfectly defending a trend this continuation trend when market reverse to create high low or lower highs in essence order flow will be created afterwards