EURUSD outlook

EURUSD is beginning to align with my bearish 4H bias.

Price traded higher, tapped into supply, and has now started moving lower.

The key now is whether this bearish move can continue and break the relevant internal lows.

EURUSD is beginning to align with my bearish 4H bias.

Price traded higher, tapped into supply, and has now started moving lower.

The key now is whether this bearish move can continue and break the relevant internal lows.

This is why I wait for confirmation.

The weekly level gave me the location.

The reaction from supply is now giving me the potential direction.

Location first. Confirmation second. Execution last.

EURUSD sellers are currently in control on the 1H.

After taking the high, price failed to continue higher and started creating bearish structure.

Now I'm watching how price behaves around the 1.1515 area.

The bullish move we've seen over the past few sessions may have been the retracement I was waiting for.

Price pushed into the higher-timeframe supply.

Now we're seeing the first signs of bearish continuation

I'm still holding my sells.

I doubt that zone will hold because it's a weak low

More reason I'm holding my sells

I had set BE since yesterday

The box low is still intact and that alone still gives me reasons to wait for Eu to break below the level before I start looking for sells

If price doesn't break below the present lows then sellers have no control yet, untill that key level is broken that is what I know, CPI is coming soon what could be the result for CPI lets look into it if the market is already pricing into it

Untill that low has broken for me to be sure that the present trend is bearish in 4hrs I will wait and moreover the fundamental narrative still supports EU upward movement except inflation data says otherwise

The reaction from supply is a good first indication that sellers are defending the zone, but the internal lows are the real confirmation. A clean break with strong bearish displacement would strengthen the 4H bearish bias and open room for further downside. If price fails to break those lows and starts reclaiming the supply zone, I'd treat the move as another rejection rather than forcing the bearish continuation.

Exactly. That three-step process removes a lot of unnecessary anticipation. The higher-timeframe level gives you the area of interest, the reaction tells you whether the market is respecting it, and confirmation provides the trigger for execution. Waiting for all three helps avoid entering simply because price reached a level and keeps the trade aligned with actual price behaviour.

If price successfully breaks below there it means the sellers won but if it holds above that level it means buyers are still much in control

Price is in a good reference point but don't forget that fundamentals is still supporting EU, and dxy has been weak the sells could even be a retracement, wait for full bearish confirmation before selling

Your entry looks precise and good, but with the way price is rejecting that low be more cautious

Which means price still has a plan for that price level, by now if the sells was to rally it would have gone far with high volume candles, liquidity is around somewhere and untill it's taken although I can't spot it out now unless tomorrow because to spot out daily liquidity it takes 3 to 4 trading days to capture it, untill that liquidity is taken above my marked highs, I won't trade

Don't forget that the low birthed a rally that was engineered by NFP, it will only take another strong economic indicators to break below that low, so price is just trading around the level so that by the time of the data release price won't be far from it

That is a very valid idea, you can hold knowing you will lose nothing at all