Forex fundamental analysis

Bullish or bearish

but whts the diff btw cope cpi and cpi m/m

Also what does ppi mean? and how does it work?

It gives a bullish overview for the dollar, although not really bullish, you don't really need to look at the forecast its the actual and the previous that wil give the direction, the actual greater than the forecast is just a suprise but like the CPI the actual 1.1% was greater than 0.7% forecast its a suprise to the market but the previous was 1.1% so there's no change, but the core PPI the forecast was 0.5% which the actual came out 0.4% if you look at the previous it's 0.7% so there's a difference between 0.7% and 0.4% which is 0.3% change since the last release so it suprise the market negatively which caused the buy on EURUSD but then the sell continued because the direction of the data is still pointing to a stable dollar, so the data release still gives a bullish sentiment for dollar

Core cpi is used to measure inflation excluding gas and food cost from the calculation, identify long term inflation

while CPI (headline CPI) is used to calculate the average price change of everyday item, including gasoline food etc

PPI is also known as producer price index it measures the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. Compiled by agencies like the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it acts as a key indicator of wholesale inflation. 

How it works is that It surveys thousands of producers across sectors like agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, tracking wholesale prices for raw materials and intermediate and finished goods.

Why it really matters It acts as an early warning for retail inflation. If producers pay more for wholesale goods, those costs are typically passed down to the consumer.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for the rest of 2026, while the US-Iran peace framework will likely weaken the US dollar in the near term by removing its geopolitical safe-haven premium.

Where Interest Rates Will GoThe Pause Persists: A massive majority of economists surveyed by Reuters predict the Fed will hold interest rates at 3.5%–3.75% through the end of 2026.

Rate Cuts Off the Table: Strong economic reports and sticky inflation have entirely wiped out earlier Wall Street expectations for rate cuts this year

Shift Under New Leadership: Under the newly appointed Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, the central bank maintains a data-dependent stance. Market implied rates on StreetStats even show a 50% probability of a rate hike toward 3.8%–4.0% by December if inflation does not recede

US new residential construction fell 15.4% in May, according to a Commerce Department report released Tuesday. The drop was significantly larger than analyst expectations, signaling a sharp slowdown in the housing sector.

The miss weighs on USD as it raises recession concerns and may pressure the Fed toward a dovish pivot. EUR/USD and GBP/USD could see upside, while USD/JPY may dip as risk sentiment softens and safe-haven demand for the yen rises.

Can this impact on fed rate cut coming up tomorrow? Let me get your honest opinion below 👇

Fed rate was yesterday was held at 3.75 against the forecast of 3.75 and previous of 3.75

Normally that wasn't a suprise for the market but the suprise was the fed statement which the expectational pivot was bearish but didn't come out bearish as expected that was what pushed the market yesterday and also all statement of further cuts were removed so presently the market is pricing on us rate hike expectations not even headlines

Core PCE Price Index

Source

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Measures

Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;

Usual Effect

'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;

Frequency

Released monthly, about 29 days after the month ends;

Next Release

Jul 30, 2026

Notes

Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. CPI is released about 10 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;

Why Traders

Care It's the Federal Reserve's primary inflation measure. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

Source

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Measures

Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;

Usual Effect

'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;

Frequency

Released quarterly, about 85 days after the quarter ends;

Next Release

Sep 30, 2026

Notes

While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;

Why Traders

Care It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;

Check out this news the slow market conditions is due to this news coming out later in the day so put all your plans together and execute only if the news data validates it

Thanks for the insight

I'll just wait for the news to be out first

You people should stop going to forex factory for economic calendar when we have one here on MTL. It doesn't make any sense. Lets use what we have here

I tried but couldn't navigate through it to choose just the red folder news with the data , if you can help with that it will be good

Final GDP came out 2.1% against 1.6% as forecast , better than previous of 1.6% so which is good for dollar

While PCI came out 0.3% against 0.3% forecast although not a suprise but still better than the previous 0.2%

So in simple terms the news data today favour dollar

News is often times a catalyst of what technicals is planning to do. In other words, it drives price in alignment with technicals.

Often times I miss their release, but only to find out my technicals aligned with the macro data released.

Good to Know. Thank you. For dollar to continue buying, it will have to pullback first. I'll take advantage of it on Silver or Gold.

I'm just coming online but thank you for this❤️