How I Built My July USD/CAD Bias Using June's Fundamental Data

July Fundamental Update :

As more July data is released, I update my macro bias instead of relying on a single news event.

Growth

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 53.3

ISM Services PMI: 54.0

Inflation

Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3%

Employment

Non-Farm Payrolls: 57K

Unemployment Rate: 4.2%

🏦 Federal Reserve

Fed Chair speech: Data-dependent with a moderately hawkish tone.

No clear signal of an imminent rate cut or policy pivot.

July Summary (Current)

The first wave of July data suggests that the U.S. economy is still expanding, with both manufacturing and services remaining in expansion territory. Wage growth also remains stable, indicating that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

However, the sharp slowdown in Non-Farm Payrolls (57K) is the first meaningful sign that the labor market is losing momentum. Although the unemployment rate improved to 4.2%, one weaker employment report alone is not enough to confirm a fundamental trend reversal.

My current view: The bullish USD outlook has weakened, but the fundamental trend has not yet changed. I will wait for the remaining July inflation data, retail sales, and further Fed communication before deciding whether this is a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a genuine macro trend shift.

Cool. That explains the consolidation phase of USDCAD

Cool. That explains the consolidation phase of USDCAD

July Fundamental Update :

As more July data is released, I update my macro bias instead of relying on a single news event.

Growth

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 53.3

ISM Services PMI: 54.0

Inflation

Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3%

Employment

Non-Farm Payrolls: 57K

Unemployment Rate: 4.2%

🏦 Federal Reserve

Fed Chair speech: Data-dependent with a moderately hawkish tone.

No clear signal of an imminent rate cut or policy pivot.

July Summary (Current)

The first wave of July data suggests that the U.S. economy is still expanding, with both manufacturing and services remaining in expansion territory. Wage growth also remains stable, indicating that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

However, the sharp slowdown in Non-Farm Payrolls (57K) is the first meaningful sign that the labor market is losing momentum. Although the unemployment rate improved to 4.2%, one weaker employment report alone is not enough to confirm a fundamental trend reversal.

My current view: The bullish USD outlook has weakened, but the fundamental trend has not yet changed. I will wait for the remaining July inflation data, retail sales, and further Fed communication before deciding whether this is a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a genuine macro trend shift.

Cool. That explains the consolidation phase of USDCAD