How I Built My July USD/CAD Bias Using June's Fundamental Data

My strategy is a very simple one so I combine fundamentals with technical so it gives high probability

June → Mid-July Fundamental Summary (USD/CAD)

🇺🇸 United States

Growth

GDP: 2.1%

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 53.3

ISM Services PMI: 54.0

The U.S. economy is still expanding, although the PMI data suggest growth is no longer accelerating as strongly as it was.

Inflation

Core CPI m/m: 0.0%

Core CPI y/y: 2.6%

CPI m/m: -0.4%

CPI y/y: 3.5%

Core PPI m/m: 0.2%

PPI m/m: -0.3%

Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3%

Both consumer and producer inflation softened. The negative monthly PPI reading is particularly important because it suggests pipeline price pressures eased, reinforcing the idea that inflation is cooling.

Employment

Non-Farm Payrolls: 57K

Unemployment Rate: 4.2%

Job creation slowed sharply, although the unemployment rate remained relatively low.

Federal Reserve

The recent Fed communication has remained data-dependent. Officials have not declared victory over inflation, but the softer CPI and PPI data increase the likelihood that future policy discussions could become less restrictive if the trend continues.

🇨🇦 Canada

Growth

GDP: 0.5%

Inflation

CPI m/m: 1.0%

Median CPI y/y: 2.1%

Trimmed CPI y/y: 2.0%

Employment

Employment Change: 18.2K

Unemployment Rate: 6.5%

Bank of Canada

Overnight Rate: 2.25% (unchanged).

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged. With no surprise move, attention shifts to future guidance and incoming data rather than the rate decision itself.

🎯 Final Macro Verdict

Comparing June with the latest July releases, the balance has shifted.

The U.S. still has an expanding economy, but two important pillars—inflation and employment—have weakened compared with June. Softer CPI, softer PPI, and much weaker payroll growth all point to easing economic momentum.

Canada has not produced the same signs of deterioration. Growth recovered in June, employment remained positive in July, unemployment edged lower, and the Bank of Canada kept policy steady.

My Current Bias

USD: Moderately weakening from its June strength.

CAD: Stable to slightly strengthening.

Overall Assessment

I would now describe the fundamental picture as moderately bearish for USD/CAD, but not yet a fully confirmed long-term reversal.

The evidence is stronger than it was after the July jobs report alone because multiple U.S. indicators are now pointing in the same direction:

✅ Inflation is cooling.

✅ Producer prices have softened.

✅ Job creation has weakened.

Meanwhile, Canada has held onto its stronger labor market and stable inflation backdrop.

Cool. I'll hold on to the sell bias until i see a strong bullish reversal on the higher timeframe at a Major key level, while holding on this projection.

USDCAD- First Scenario - i'm expecting a rebound at the 1.3950 support price level, causing a rally back to the 1.4100 resistance level imprinting the Classic head and shoulder bearish reversal pattern.

USDCAD- Second Scenario - , if the rebound at the 1.3950 Support level fails, then there will be a downside break and retest of the level for a further price decline to retest the bearish trendline it broke out from last month.

Cool. I'll hold on to the sell bias until i see a strong bullish reversal on the higher timeframe at a Major key level, while holding on this projection.

USDCAD- My Bias remains bearish for as long as price keeps trading within the confines of the bearish channel.

The bearish bias is very valid in as much as oil and middle east tension continues, but if there must be a retracement upward before the dump then oil just drop a little or cad must have a slight weak fundamental data to support that upward movement

USDCAD is dumping alongside dollar weakness and oil strength due to the high demand of oil and low supply, but right now it's just moving very slow, I am anticipating little oil weaknesses for it to go up a little before dumping again

My strategy is a very simple one so I combine fundamentals with technical so it gives high probability

After tracking the macro data from June through July, my bias has shifted. The U.S. economy is still expanding, but cooling inflation, weaker payroll growth, and softer producer prices show that USD momentum is fading. Meanwhile, Canada's fundamentals have remained resilient, supported by stable growth and consecutive positive employment reports.

My conclusion: The strong bullish USD/CAD outlook from earlier has transitioned into a fundamentally bearish bias. That doesn't mean selling at any price, it means I'll now look for selling opportunities on rallies, while continuing to monitor upcoming economic releases for confirmation that the bearish trend remains intact.

After tracking the macro data from June through July, my bias has shifted. The U.S. economy is still expanding, but cooling inflation, weaker payroll growth, and softer producer prices show that USD momentum is fading. Meanwhile, Canada's fundamentals have remained resilient, supported by stable growth and consecutive positive employment reports.

My conclusion: The strong bullish USD/CAD outlook from earlier has transitioned into a fundamentally bearish bias. That doesn't mean selling at any price, it means I'll now look for selling opportunities on rallies, while continuing to monitor upcoming economic releases for confirmation that the bearish trend remains intact.