Major USD Pairs Discussion | Daily Market Breakdown

EURUSD TRADE PROJECTION

Timeframe: Weekly
Bias: Bearish
Technical Outlook: Price is still trading below the resistance level at 1.1469 for the 4th week now. This further confirms price readiness to continue it's downward move to the 1.1100 technical support region. Still expecting this pattern completion on the weekly.

EURUSD: Analysis Update-

Price started with a strong bullish move yesterday, but made a strong retreat at the 1.1445 Resistance price Level which conincides with the upper boundaries of the bearish trendline on the Daily. The sharp retreat, resulted in a downside break below the lower boundaries of the bearish flag pattern, closing the day bearish.

EU- Today, price resumes with bullish price action as it heads for a retest of the lower boundaries flag pattern at 1.1425 price level. Expect sell continuations.

EU- on 4hr, Price has a potential of forming the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder Pattern, which further strengthens the bearish bias on the daily.

EU: On 1hr price trades within the 1.1378 Low and the 1.1395 high all through the asian session. A break above the high, will result in a positive rally back to 1.1420 price region, while a break below the low will result in negative drop down to 1.1320 price level.

EU- On 15mins- A 15mins bearish channel forms, challenging an upside break above the asian high, and presenting high probabilities for a break below the asian low for the sell continuations from yesterday. Short positions can be covered as scalp opportunities within the asian range for traders.

The EXY index weakens further today than yesterday, with a current -0.27% decline below yesterday. This adds as a technical alignment for strong sells on EURUSD.

EXY Weeekly Overview

The EXY (Euro currency Index) had a bullish week, as price rallied back to the upper boundaries of the bearish channel while continuing to make a break-above attempt at the key resistance level.

Several factors like the following can influence EXY to sell lower.

-Stronger-than-expected Eurozone Inflation falling, encouraging more ECB rate cuts.
-Weaker Eurozone economic data (PMIs,GDP,employment)
-A more Hawkish Federal Reserve or rising US Treasury yields.
-Increased capital outflows from European assets.

On the Charts, there's an historic data showing the fall of the EXY From May 2021- Nov 2022.

The Bearish flag pattern that has been valid for 4 weeks now, is still holding strong, despite last week convictions that the basket intended to continue bearish this week.

Several Factors that are currently supporting the euro are:

Relative central bank expectations: Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates faster than the ECB, that makes the euro to become relatively more attractive even when the Eurozone economy is not particularly strong.

Capital Flows into Europe: Global investors have been allocating more capital into European assets, helping support demand for Euros

Safe-haven Demand- With the current geopolitical tensions in the middle east, the euros have at times behaved more like a safe-haven currency, attracting inflows instead of heavy selling.

Broad-Basket Effect: Even if EUR/USD stalls or pullback, the euro strength against currencies like GBP, JPY, can prevent EXY from a sharp decline.

From the Charts, we can see that the Euros has had a bullish run the entire previous year. From January 2025 till December 2026.

The year 2026 has been a corrective year for the EXY after it's Bull run last year. I'm expecting the correction to cause price to further decline down to the 110 Major Support Price region, before we see another strong rally.

The current Correction phase of the EXY matches with EURUSD Bearish Trend on the Daily timeframe. and as there's more room on the downside for the EXY to fill up, same goes for the EURUSD.

On the Monthly as well, EURUSD had a bull run last year, just like EXY and is currently in a correction phase of that bull run which I expect price decline down to 1.1090 Major support region before the next strong rally kicks in for EURUSD.

EURUSD- I'm expecting the Pullback Sell phase that happened Between April to May last year, to repeat itself this year. The duration will differ, but the pattern will replicate.

GBPUSD- Market Summary and Weekly Review

Structure: Bullish Ascending Channel
Timeframe Analysis - From Mn to 1hr

GBPUSD on the Monthly, price has been trading within a converging Ascending Channel.
Price just formed the most recent Low on the Dynamic Support this June-July period at the 1.3667 price region, after several months of consolidation since when it reached the upper boundaries of the Ascending channel between June-July Last year.

The Consolidation Journey between the Upper boundaries (Dynamic resistance) of the Rising Channel to the lower boundaries (Dynamic support) of the rising channel has lasted for one Year.

This Implies that the next bullish rally on GBPUSD will be a force to reckon with, if price makes an upside break above the 1.3803 horizontal resistance price level.

On GBPUSD- I'll be expecting 1000 pips bullish drive from this month to this time next year.

On the Weekly, GBPUSD has formed a bearish consolidation channel and traded to the upper boundaries of the channel this week, before retreating for a closing price at 1.3452 below it.