Market Analysis

NZDCHF has delivered another BOS to the downside.

This is exactly why I focus on structure rather than trying to predict bottoms. Until price gives me a meaningful bullish structural shift, rallies remain potential opportunities for continuation lower.

The bearish sequence remains clean:

Lower high → displacement lower → BOS → retracement → another BOS.

Price is currently sitting around the lows, so I’m not chasing sells here. I’d rather see a retracement provide better positioning.

NZDCHF has now pushed through the previous low around 0.4699, continuing the bearish delivery.

The next question isn't whether price has fallen enough.

The question is: where is the next liquidity, and where can price retrace before continuing?

There’s a potential scenario developing on NZDCHF that I’m watching closely.

Price could sweep the weak low, retrace toward the 0.4725–0.4729 area, mitigate the POI above, and then continue lower.

I’ll let structure confirm it rather than forcing the entry.

One thing I don't want to do here is sell NZDCHF simply because it's bearish.

Price is already trading near the lows.

I want the market to retrace into premium, preferably toward my marked supply/POI, before looking for another bearish execution.

Location matters just as much as direction.

NZDCHF bearish narrative remains intact.

The strong high around 0.4738 remains protected while price continues creating lower lows.

As long as that structure holds, my expectation remains for bearish continuation after any meaningful retracement.

This NZDCHF chart is a reminder that price doesn't move in a straight line.

Even within strong bearish order flow, I expect periods of retracement.

A rally from the current lows wouldn't automatically make me bullish—it could simply be price seeking liquidity and mitigating supply before another expansion lower.

Current lows → possible retracement → POI around 0.4725+ → bearish reaction → continuation lower.

That's the scenario I'm watching.

If price gives me something different, I'll adjust. I trade what price confirms, not what I want it to do.

NZDCHF has remained structurally bearish across the 1H picture, and the repeated downside BOS continues to support that narrative.

The weak low is being attacked now. Instead of chasing price down here, I'm watching for a retracement into the marked POI.

Liquidity → retracement → mitigation → continuation.

That's the sequence I want to see.

EURCHF is at a very interesting higher-timeframe location. 👀

On the Daily, price has rallied aggressively into previous internal range liquidity around 0.9450 and pushed beyond it. We’re now seeing rejection from the highs.

I’m watching closely for signs that this bullish expansion is transitioning into a correction.

EURCHF Daily Update 📊

Price has already delivered a huge bullish expansion from the March lows.

Now we’re trading around a major liquidity area, with a weak high near 0.9480 sitting above.

The reaction from this region could determine whether we continue higher or begin a deeper correction.

EURCHF has taken the previous IRL around 0.9450.

That liquidity objective has now been delivered.

With price rejecting after trading above that level, I’m shifting my attention to the possibility of a bearish correction rather than blindly chasing the bullish move.

The 4H structure is starting to get interesting on EURCHF.

Price pushed toward the weak high, rejected, and is now pressing into the short-term structure around 0.9420.

A convincing bearish structural break here would strengthen my case for a deeper retracement.

EURCHF is a good example of why I don't automatically buy simply because the higher timeframe has been bullish.

The Daily expansion has already carried price into liquidity.

Now I want to know whether buyers still have enough strength to continue—or whether the market needs to rebalance lower first.

EURCHF roadmap for the coming sessions:

I’m watching for price to complete the current downside displacement, retrace toward the 4H supply around 0.9460–0.9470, and then potentially continue lower.

If that sequence develops cleanly, the retracement could provide the location I want for sells.

There’s a weak high around 0.9480 on EURCHF, so I'm not ignoring the possibility of one more liquidity run higher.

Price could sweep that high before the real correction begins.

This is exactly why confirmation matters. Bias gives me direction; structure gives me execution.

EURCHF is showing the first signs of weakness after a powerful bullish run.

The 4H chart is attempting a CHoCH while the Daily chart shows price rejecting after reaching higher-timeframe liquidity.

I’m not calling a complete bearish reversal yet—I'm watching for a corrective bearish phase within the broader move.

My EURCHF idea is simple:

Daily liquidity has been reached.

The weak high remains vulnerable.

4H momentum is weakening.

Short-term structure is under pressure.

Now I want to see whether price retraces into the marked supply and gives sellers another opportunity.

EURCHF — patience from here.

The market has already expanded a long way from the lows, and price is now reacting around an important HTF liquidity area.

My preferred sequence is:

Liquidity taken → bearish CHoCH → retracement into supply → bearish continuation.

If price doesn't deliver that sequence, I don't force the trade.