K
Kar
@karbin
Last seen:
3 weeks ago
sidelined is a position
84 Followers
2 Following
First 2 days on the month set the highs or lows of that month on EURUSD mostly. These act as pivots, so much so that you can trade its break or a double test.
The entire month has been sideways, unable to break the high or low set in those first 2 days.
Yesterday it tested the low of the start of month, and failed to break. If the PMI playbook holds, then it should sell into that 65 low again today.
I'll add to it, there are 2 ways to trade it.
a. You either trade the first push up till the PMI. For example, Franky opened at the low, I bought it at 13786, for push till hourly high. I was anticipating it will push till 95, I has, but I closed it at 88 for around 10 pips.
I trade this initial push, because I trade Franky, not London.
b. Or as you mentioned, take the actual PMI trade. Don't assume the initial push is the trend, fade it on first red bar today (or blue).
Also, have an invalidation, in case it does not work. Currently, the hit rate of this playbook is really high.
On EURUSD, Mondays & Fridays set the highs or lows of the week almost 60% of the times. I've faded the Franky (Franky fake & London break) at 14069. If yesterday's low breaks, I'll hold till last week's low.
I was hoping for Franky to open near yesterday's high for a better entry, but Asian was already down. If the Franky low holds, this might become a garbage trade.
On most days, Frankfurt sets the high or lows of the day or atleast till you get the start of NY session. In hindsight, you will see that you would have caught the high or low of the day during Frankfurt.
I was expecting it to set the high today, to go till 1320s, but it set the low instead. In my opinion, it opens up another week where we could go lower.
I don't think the current low on 24th June during NY session (on the NY stock market open) is the low where we put in a reversal to start a major upside move. It starts during Frankfurt.
Just go a look back at any major move start, it's high or low is during Frankkfurt or London in most cases. For example, this last leg down started on the US inflation data news on 12th May. Asian started that move, but Frankfurt is the high.
In my opinion, late NY does not set major highs or lows. So, I would be really surprised if this is the low.
I've a sell at 80, with sl just above the high. I'm fading the Asian move, assuming a fake above 74.
I want to be a seller, but holding support above 74 for now.
A break below 74 is important for the sell side. It is the London session high for Wednesday & Thursday.
It is also the London fix for yesterday.
I'm short, fading the news bar at it's high, also the hourly high. My risk is not that high, it is a speculative position.
My entry is at 4015.48 & SL at 4020.25.
Honestly, it is a crap touch & go market. It does not even test the hourly highs completely. I had a buy at 65, went almost 10 pips, I did not take it & was stopped out for -2.
As per the playbook for PMI
a. You have the initial move during Franky, that takes it to the nearest high or low.
b. And then that move is faded to the real direction. For example, if the Franky takes it up to the nearest high, then the data release will likely sell it.
To be honest, I was actually expecting the Franky to sell before the PMI, then buy it. I am biased on this because of higher timeframe & USD positional data. You very likely get turning points based on that.
But it was the opposite today. Franky took it up first, then the real direction being sell on PMI data release.
At some point as Franky was going up first, and my first sell SL got hit, I did realize that sell was the direction of PMI. But I was stopped out, as I did not think it will go above 30, which was the hourly high.
And there was no trigger to sell when it actually did sell after that. The buy after that was just speculative, and got stopped at BE.
I'm moving SL to BE, the price is moving really slow. The reaction on this level so far is really weak.
This is the low for the first 2 weeks during the start of Iran war. Price has traded in between that range since then. We are at that low now.
If the USD positioning is large enough, you could get a reversal from here.
Also, tomorrow we will get release of CFTC data. Then you will know if the USD positioning is skewed enough for a major turning point.
USD right now is at an important level.
The playbook for Eurozone PMI today was, it will test the nearest levels & sell (I was thinking 30). And then it will hit the real buy level below the Asian low, if this is going to be a buy.
I want to position on the buy side. Also, 1410 is the weekly low of the war drop. We are right there. I am looking to buy EURUSD, and this is a low risk try, worth it. Chasing sells here, seems like a bad idea.
But as I said, there is no trigger, it is a highly speculative entry.
I'm fading this move. I'm long at 07 approx, SL at 03. There is no trigger for now, so the position is small.
Showing 20 of 100+ replies.
Log in to see all replies