P
Ricky
@patrader
Last seen:
1 week ago
i trade eur only.
48 Followers
1 Following
EU has been a disappointment this week putting in no major reversal as per my expectation.
Looking at this piddly up move i feel EU still has another down week remaining before we see any reliable rally.
Not getting beaten down by the outcome of a single trade. And walking away when you feel the market is giving you a hard time.
Sadly i was stopped out of the sell trade at 1.1435 and the day has gone down after the news.
Clearly PMI playbook worked in hindsight but my sl was blown to shreds. The selloff was persistent after that but i had missed the cheap seat and was not gonna chase it. My loss for the day was hit.
EU looks to be heading in the basement. But i still think we are headed down so we can head back up in the coming months.
The 20s dates between 21-30 are mostly pin bars. So any buys may kill you before they work. That is why i said there is risky trading day today.
There is yen intervention risk too, it may move other pairs too.
Let's see if we get traction on longs today.
I will try either outcomes climax bottom or long from current lows.
The high or low formed at 7 am london time or frankfurt bar are formidable.
But you need to have a proper stop to prevent not getting stopped out. From my experience best locations are hourly high lows with atleast 8 pips stop. Once the trade moves in your favor move stop down or up.
Yes,
Don't try to be a buyer at highs thinking it's a strong trend it may go to the nearest low and same with the highs.
I have a feeling we are going to put a weekly bottom in EU in this week. Then later head for the move till 1.25.
This is not an indicator just information filtering.
I don't take entries based on leading or lagging indicators. ADX RSI MACD are classified as indies no session filters. Hope this clarifies things.
My trade today. attached in 2 screenshots.
My trades this week. attached in screenshot 3. Most days the entry was at days high or low but i still took the easy money approach avoided greed. I can scale this up but i have been sluggish recently will slowly do that.
Happy weekend.
+2
When you are trading any instrument it is best to always trade the liquid sessions as the price action patterns are reliable and predictable. You also have a much higher chance of catching a trending move during a liquid session.
The indicator allows you to hide all the candles in between only draws the candles that formed during a particular session. This does 2 things.
1. You can spot the last sessions closes more effectively. Oftentimes the price trades exactly where it was in last session. Even continues from the last close.
2. Frees up mental bandwidth allowing you to focus on the here and now. you only see the candles you want to see.
You should also understand that technical traders can get caught up in the noise, looking to the left to predict in the right. But when you filter out today's price action in real time you are just focusing on the current candle. Is it showing a strong move in one direction or the other allowing you to trade the trend more effectively.
I use the indicator to filter out the time between 6 AM london time to 12 Noon london time. Which i consider the most liquid part of the session in london.
As per this chart it should be visible that most high and low of the trading sessions were formed in the first 2 hours every day. So if you wanted to go long and traded the bullish pattern in that time period you could have caught the entire sessions trend. But say you wanted to go short and took the first price action bar and got stopped out and the 2 hours have passed and you are still looking to get into a trade against what has formed you are more likely to be wrong.
EU trades by 2 rules. frankfurt is the days trend. When you see two15 minute candles in single direction in EU in frankfurt don't fight it. London bar is the only bar that challenges frankfurt and can flip it.
Most instruments trade in sessions US30 opening 2 hours are the most important setting the tone for the day. Same here with EU or GU whatever you like. The reasoning is obvious the banks and hedgers doing business would work in their working hours causing the moves so any move in EU that is not in active business hours is unreliable. But with 24/5 fx market a hedger in japan could place an order in asian session but you would still pay heed to the moves in london session only.
Hope this helps.
Don't get hung up on terminology focus on trading.
Just do better in the next day then you did yesterday. The mumbo jumbo won't help.
I will tell you this. This entire week every days high low was either made in frankfurt or pre-frankfurt. You did not need to know any fancy stuff.
When EU was falling and at .9800 some guy was citing bank of america analyst report that EU should go to 8500. this was one of those paid market intelligence service. He was wrong.
Market goes overboard on things always. EU rebounded without touching 9500 followed the exact path it followed when trump was elected last time went up. I am intraday trader i did not make money on that swing trade but on daily chart technicals worked same support worked and it went up.
We should assume EU up till we get a lower high or major breakdown. Target the nearest major Yearly resistance. EU loves to do climax bar when you see long elongated selloff that is when you run, that would be the end of the sell off.
I don't think DXY is going to be long in the coming months. I hardly believe an innocent reasoning such as borrowing would indicate any changes towards existing trend.
US dollar has taken a significant hit after trump reelection prompting the pull out of money from the US. The world will continue towards de-globalization. The world would look inward investing in local economies rather then looking at the US. France has been pushing for decoupling from US tech. Chinese has publicly instructed the local regional government to use local alternatives.
Sure the AI wave will draw capital to the US but i think we are still on track for DXY decline.
Even if you were to believe DXY going up. DXY is a risk proxy and hence a risk on trade, with iran war resolution. I think net sentiment should have become neutral dollar not bullish.
EU and GU should both continue their uptrend GU heading toward 1.4500 and EU to 1.25
Yes.
Find the edge then without worrying press the button when that edge shows up. Don't get disappointed over an individual trade as long as it was taken based on that edge.
Finally increase the lot size with time and have a timeline in your mind to do that.
The session opened and double tested where it last closed now falling back to where it last started.
See the computer generated chart 2 showing the last trading day. It showed how important the range high break was today that never happened hence we are slowly drifting to where the price was yesterday and the US session lows.
+1
For a trader to be happy and profitable he need only to be right more then wrong and make more money when right then wrong. Meaning don't pushback on losing days and be relaxed and walk away.
Good days happen, trading is a simple experience we make it hard.
It's hard to follow then to say it and hence every now and then i also feel the pain and question myself but then i realize this game is easy we just have to reduce the number of trades and let the sequence play out.
I have attached a nice chart showing the power of red bars and blue bars at right times.
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