EURUSD
I think one possible scenario for the week is range b/w 1.10 & 870/900, I mean we trade inside the last week's high & lows, and test the edges, before breaking to one side.
I try to visualize this for the weekly, and consider the possibilities or some bias before the session, because it helps me to be prepared in case of an unexpected move to one side, then you have some plan than be caught off-guard on risk.
It may not work for everyone.
We are at the highs now. Maybe we reverse the move & range. That possibility is still there.
So, for anyone longing here (or at any highs), it is a risk that we consolidate there rather than continue the trend.
I don't like to make price predictions (and I'm mostly wrong on it), one can't trade it long-term.
I'm right now sidelined, only had one Long trade at Franky today. London is strongly up for the day, so hard to go short against it.
We are at the highs now. Maybe we reverse the move & range. That possibility is still there.
So, for anyone longing here (or at any highs), it is a risk that we consolidate there rather than continue the trend.
I don't like to make price predictions (and I'm mostly wrong on it), one can't trade it long-term.
I'm right now sidelined, only had one Long trade at Franky today. London is strongly up for the day, so hard to go short against it.
There is a major options barrier at 1035 expiring NY 10AM. I'll not blindly trade the level, I am patiently waiting.
Inverse DXY is ranging & rejected from the 102.2x again.
If you notice, EUR/USD did make a higher high than last week, but DXY did not. Most of the other pairs were not that strong.
I still think from the weekly, as I updated last week that we are likely to range here.
Maybe swing traders could position themselves (or could have at the DXY lows of 102.2x), but it is really hard to position in my case when London is not making the highs & lows, and I enter during London or Franky.
All the during today during London was inside the Asian range.
I'm on the sidelines waiting to see a range form tomorrow maybe during London, to trade. Let us see.
Although EURUSD has managed to break down 0981 but the US session has managed to leave the close ambiguous meaning that the close happened within 10 pips of the support.
See chart 1:
The london session is trading right against the support 0981. The current price as we speak has reached 990.
There is an option barrier 1.4 B $ at 10990-11000.
The price action is indicating that the US session will likely try to trade till 1.1 that will give sign if we managed to break the 1.0981. A sharp reversal from the 1.1 round number will confirm that 1.0981 is now resistance and we can head towards 1.0900. Even then we must absolutely get a close below 1.0970 by days end if we are bearish otherwise next week still might push up.
Chart2:
In the meantime i had taken a long trade till the range high 1.0990. Covered completely.
I am still inclined bullish till we get a spike up and confirmed sell off, any 10 min bullish engulfing patterns or bars that break their highs would be good signs to buy.
Although EURUSD has managed to break down 0981 but the US session has managed to leave the close ambiguous meaning that the close happened within 10 pips of the support.
See chart 1:
The london session is trading right against the support 0981. The current price as we speak has reached 990.
There is an option barrier 1.4 B $ at 10990-11000.
The price action is indicating that the US session will likely try to trade till 1.1 that will give sign if we managed to break the 1.0981. A sharp reversal from the 1.1 round number will confirm that 1.0981 is now resistance and we can head towards 1.0900. Even then we must absolutely get a close below 1.0970 by days end if we are bearish otherwise next week still might push up.
Chart2:
In the meantime i had taken a long trade till the range high 1.0990. Covered completely.
I am still inclined bullish till we get a spike up and confirmed sell off, any 10 min bullish engulfing patterns or bars that break their highs would be good signs to buy.
As i wrote this price has rejected from 990. This means we are ranging to bullish biased. That means you can choose to long any predefined supports or buy any good bullish patterns.
Beware that if the support break don't let market get you on the wrong side and cut the losses short and walk away till you get clarity.
Any strong selling will only happen either on spike of 1.1 or break down of 0977, that is london bar low.
As i wrote this price has rejected from 990. This means we are ranging to bullish biased. That means you can choose to long any predefined supports or buy any good bullish patterns.
Beware that if the support break don't let market get you on the wrong side and cut the losses short and walk away till you get clarity.
Any strong selling will only happen either on spike of 1.1 or break down of 0977, that is london bar low.
Ranging session, you can see there is no trend here.
London is ranging inside the Asian. I'm short at 0405, with stops just above the range (Franky) high.
There is a bearish pattern on the 2H (I'm using closes at London Fix). It may not work out, but it is an important level here.
London is ranging inside the Asian. I'm short at 0405, with stops just above the range (Franky) high.
There is a bearish pattern on the 2H (I'm using closes at London Fix). It may not work out, but it is an important level here.
Update: I'm out of at 359 after the follow through was not happening even till the end of the session (on second test of the low).
It is still unable to break the 30s low. I've decided not to hold it into the NY session.
Update: I'm out of at 359 after the follow through was not happening even till the end of the session (on second test of the low).
It is still unable to break the 30s low. I've decided not to hold it into the NY session.
US sessions can be a bit tricky. Clearly the US session was a strong trend up today after the Frankfurt break.
I will be looking for shorts this week, starting with watching for bearish engulfings on 4 hour.
US sessions can be a bit tricky. Clearly the US session was a strong trend up today after the Frankfurt break.
I will be looking for shorts this week, starting with watching for bearish engulfings on 4 hour.
The 102.2x level on DXY has broken to the downside. 101.8x level could pause & range the price maybe. The attached DXY chart is just for rough idea, not exact levels.
But given that we broke below the weekly low, it is hard to short the EUR without any sign of weakness in PA, I agree.
The 102.2x level on DXY has broken to the downside. 101.8x level could pause & range the price maybe. The attached DXY chart is just for rough idea, not exact levels.
But given that we broke below the weekly low, it is hard to short the EUR without any sign of weakness in PA, I agree.
Range here is a possibility, see the circles marked on the chart. Price has ranged at this level before, and usually (not always) ranges form around the same levels where there previously were ranges.
I'll just be waiting for some trigger tomorrow.
Went short at 1.1079 stop 9 pips.
Reasoning there is a low break and frankfurt gave a psuedo bearish bar of that.
Went short at 1.1079 stop 9 pips.
Reasoning there is a low break and frankfurt gave a psuedo bearish bar of that.
Chart:
Update 1:
Break above franky london high at 1.1083 would nullify that trade, trade is going fine now.
Chart:
Update 1:
Break above franky london high at 1.1083 would nullify that trade, trade is going fine now.
Took the hit of 3 pips and am not going to be trading this today.
Trade almost was going to work was up 7 pips then it blasted off, i still believe it is biased on sell side today with 1.1060 being a modest target.
Technical view EURUSD
I am using various timeframes just to get the understanding of price action, remember that price is fractal in nature so you can compare a 15 minute chart to daily or any timeframe you like as long as it helps you understand the Price action.
Overall view is bullish with selling possible with caution.
Chart 1:
This is the fast chart that will give clues for fresh selling and this does seem to be selling off from 1.1132 but it has obvious major supports at 1.1110 and 1.1100. Any one trying a short should have tried it on spike up in london session.
Selling on lows should be avoided but if you are trend follower you would love that but you don't have much room to go as 1100 is support and can cause bounce but it all depends if you believe selling can be strong then sell low break cover on any high breaks.
Buyers that don't want to fade the trend could have anticipated buying patterns in frankfurt bar and right now it sits around same lows at 1110 and we could buy a break of 10 minute chart patterns on the upside.
Chart2:
This would be my 15 minute analog and is a 6 hour chart, we are capped on the down side by 1.1100 support and high at 1132. strong selling can only show up below the break of 1.1100. We are not looking bearish here. 1.1070 is visible here too it presents good buying opportunity if a session opens there but that seems unlikely
Chart 3:
The daily chart shows no weakness and if we are to sell off heavily in this week and turn this week into a pinbar or cap the rise we will need a strong daily move down, the obvious obstacles are 1.1070 support that is also the low of the last london session.
With no major news we can only expect fast declines if they may happen on thursday with initial jobless claims data coming out of the US and pmi data from Europe
Chart 4 is session chart:
This chart shows the current session and it is mostly sideways and low is holding.
Chart 5 not attached:
The weekly chart shows no signs of weakness. Gauging this i can just create a view that price lacks sell side momentum. There looks more upside pending.
Inverse Chart:
Not running sells, covered all.
I've closed my short at 1181 (the position size was much lower than what I normally trade).
I expected the price to start moving by now & follow through during London. But for now it is not. These past few days, London has been sideways & NY pushing it up.
I don't intend to hold it late into the London & start of NY.
Technical view EURUSD
I am using various timeframes just to get the understanding of price action, remember that price is fractal in nature so you can compare a 15 minute chart to daily or any timeframe you like as long as it helps you understand the Price action.
Overall view is bullish with selling possible with caution.
Chart 1:
This is the fast chart that will give clues for fresh selling and this does seem to be selling off from 1.1132 but it has obvious major supports at 1.1110 and 1.1100. Any one trying a short should have tried it on spike up in london session.
Selling on lows should be avoided but if you are trend follower you would love that but you don't have much room to go as 1100 is support and can cause bounce but it all depends if you believe selling can be strong then sell low break cover on any high breaks.
Buyers that don't want to fade the trend could have anticipated buying patterns in frankfurt bar and right now it sits around same lows at 1110 and we could buy a break of 10 minute chart patterns on the upside.
Chart2:
This would be my 15 minute analog and is a 6 hour chart, we are capped on the down side by 1.1100 support and high at 1132. strong selling can only show up below the break of 1.1100. We are not looking bearish here. 1.1070 is visible here too it presents good buying opportunity if a session opens there but that seems unlikely
Chart 3:
The daily chart shows no weakness and if we are to sell off heavily in this week and turn this week into a pinbar or cap the rise we will need a strong daily move down, the obvious obstacles are 1.1070 support that is also the low of the last london session.
With no major news we can only expect fast declines if they may happen on thursday with initial jobless claims data coming out of the US and pmi data from Europe
Chart 4 is session chart:
This chart shows the current session and it is mostly sideways and low is holding.
Chart 5 not attached:
The weekly chart shows no signs of weakness. Gauging this i can just create a view that price lacks sell side momentum. There looks more upside pending.
This is the 12H (close at London fix), I'm looking at some PA that would indicate that the high was put in that period. I mean something of a cap.
Right now, the last 4H (second chart) is still up. After the London open, there was no follow through, and we are still trading inside London bar.
For any short in NY, first I am looking for a close on 15M below the low of London 1109.
EUR is a little bit volatile today due to the news and more news is coming of the US.
My tight stops of 10 pips wont stand a chance since each 5 minute bar is 4 pips, so i am stepping aside for today, have taken a hit of 2 pips already.
The second trade was half the first bet size reduced, it is part of business to lose money have to accept it.
This is the 12H (close at London fix), I'm looking at some PA that would indicate that the high was put in that period. I mean something of a cap.
Right now, the last 4H (second chart) is still up. After the London open, there was no follow through, and we are still trading inside London bar.
For any short in NY, first I am looking for a close on 15M below the low of London 1109.
Shorts are still elusive and difficult to place.