EURUSD

ZEW coming in 15 minutes best to stay away from the news.

You know usually if london fakes back into frankfurt its either a range or trend continuation, in this case last daily trend is up.

This bullish bar in london was a bit strong and immediately ate all the franky move, makes me nervous with short.

Best guess a range play still or we spike higher in the news and come back down, but that means a blown stop loss on the short. So staying away from the shorts.

If you must go short wait for a bar close on 15 min with a wick above it and short there with stop slightly above that bar. And cut the trade if the high breaks. It is also important that you have a limit to the max loss you can take if a trend shows up.

Yes, but regardless, I don't think it makes sense to enter any position right now at this time of the session.

Not against the session (until there is sequence of support breaking lower). Or in the direction. If someone is already in a position, that's different.

Very hard to have a decent SL here. The session could as easily range here, or just continue to trend higher. Range looks like a higher possibility, but not something I would trade.

So, I'll be sidelined for today.

Update london session 17 Sep 24.

The news is very negative for the EUR, that implies the trend up today should be capped.

If the FED cuts by 50 bps then maybe EURUSD more higher otherwise we stick to big falsebreak in EU on the high side. PA looks bad for sellers on EU though.

London is clearly strongly up after that Bullish Engulfing at the London open on 15M, it is holding above the Franky high. I mean USD is weak.

Hard to argue with that.

Until we break lower of 1133 support & Franky high, it will be hard to hard to trade against it & fade this.

On DXY, I think, we need some sort of a fast move down on the Daily & fade that would indicate strong buying (that can then be traded session to session in one direction if that happens).

If it does happen, it will likely happen during some NY session in this week, given the FOMC & other data being released.

And of course, the possibility is that DXY just breaks lower.

I think we might fall back in the range..

This is not trading advice, the low marked highlighted by kar 1133 might still support it. But ZEW is really bad so i have a strong feeling this day might be negative.

More data coming from the US if it is on par with expectation. EU will fall or stay in range.

Yes, that's one possibility.

But it is entirely possibly that this holds during NY & we just range here, even the 15M right now is unable to break the last bar low currently. I think it will range here above 1133 until Retail Sales data.

In any case, I don't think one can or should trade it right now (at this time), that's the important thing. Only based on a direction bias.

long 1.1121 stop 7 pips.

I am targeting 1.1139-1.1135.

Charts with illustration.

My opinion london session will trade up till the news EUR cpi. After that wait if the news breaks low if not the session will be bullish and buy on dips.

Good day..

It is FOMC day. keep a fixed risk profile(loss limit) and exit if you get a loss with in that limit. This market can kill you today if you are not careful.

short 1.11288 stop 8 pips.

stopped out.

Sellers are getting crushed. By the looks of it will climb as high as possible then dump back in the US session..

Anyways this market condition is highly volatile with each 5 min candle being average 4-5 pips, so this is not conducive for my strategy. I am logging off

I think an open of the Frankie tomorrow below the 1110 level is important. I am looking to short it, but right now it is challenging to enter here without the risk of SL getting hit.

I'm waiting for Asian range tomorrow & maybe we will have a good Frankie setup at the edge. The important thing is control of the risk, which right now is hard, the average range of any 5M is large enough to trigger SLs on either side.

Attached is the chart of London & NY sessions. For sell, I am waiting for it to open lower below 1110 or 1130 tomorrow & then highs become resistance.

short 1.11712 stop 7 pips.

cut it for 4 pip loss..

Reversed and took long 1175.

Stopped out on long -4 pips .

Net loss -8 pips for today.

It appears we are indeed short and EUR pulled the frankfurt fakeout on yesterdays high. I would not be inclined to long this today.There is no doubt about it, but as traders we cant say that but i have strong belief we are short.

Only looking to short any rally. Possible target 1.1139-1.1135 which coincides with daily pivot point at 1.1134.

Charts:

I am logging off. I have missed the drop and the marker has gone sideways. live to fight another day.

We closed the week on DXY above this range low, on the Daily. I was trading for this range in this week, and there was a false break to the downside.

In the next 2 weeks I think we would have it resolve to one side, that would maybe allow to trade London in a direction for few weeks.

As of now, I'm looking for bearish setups on the EURUSD during London next week. But I can change my mind as I see the Asian.

Have a nice weekend. See you next week.