USD/CAD for newbies

For today, im trading the USD/CAD long position with the help of the MACD indicator.

Currently USD/CAD is facing downward pressure but the MACD indicates upward pressure may be coming because the blue line is about to cross the orange line from beneath it.

blue line has crossed orange line on MACD indicator so there's now upward pressure as you can see the green candles have started going up

Entry Price 1.3738

TP 1.3751

SL 1.3732

Looking good. Im seeing more upward pressure

I need to secure some profits so i move Stop Loss higher to 1.37379

More upward pressure. Looking good i hope my TP is hit

More upward movement and i kept moving my Stop Loss upward to secure profits. Now my Stop Loss has been hit

Learning point: I kept moving my stop loss upwards to secure profits and it suddenly got hit when price retraced sharply. Next time when adjusting my stop loss i will give some distance

Today I am shorting the USD/CAD

Why?

Because the USD/CAD is in a down trend & using the MACD indicator you an see the histogram candles are red indicating downward pressure but the chart itself is showing green candles.

This means to me that the green candles are just other short sellers exiting the market and the USD/CAD down trend will still continue. Lets see if im right

As predicted the downward trend is continuing let le modify my order and set a Stop Loss

SL = 1.09273 meaning I'm ready to risk $70

TP = 1.0905 meaning my profit target is $150

My RIsk to Reward ratio is 70/150 = 0.46

This means im risking $70 to make $150

Looking good. I am seeing more downward pressure so the down trend is continuing as predicted. Waiting for price to hit my Take profit target

Seeing more downward pressure as price is approaching my Take Profit.

Price keeps moving down in my favor so i adjust my stop loss to secure some profits by ragging the stop loss downwards,

Price suddenly start going up in an uptrend and the MACD indicator hints of this because if you check, the blue and orange lines are nearing each other. At this point my SL is hit and i exit with the profits i secured.

I don't trade CAD, but there is a very strong close Bearish engulfing on the weekly.

At significant level on the monthly. This could be significant for other USD pairs as well if you look at it together where other pairs are as well.

Not that they move together, but usually, they are at major breakout or reversal levels together.

If you look historically, USDCAD engulfing candles often don't break & start the moves immediately.

When it is trading against an immediate level & does not clear it, in cases it just ranges for few weeks & then break to one side.

I think the coming very important US Inflation data in next 2 days (and UE, Retail Sales on Thursday) will resolve this consolidation on 12H & give clear direction, and would indicate how the weekly would shape.

I don't really know how one can trade this by positioning on one side because most of the move will likely be from the economic event. Unless you have a bias on the US data.

Update: The Bearish engulfing on the weekly worked out (chart). I did not take it because I was looking for a deeper pullback inside of highs & lows as I mentioned 3 weeks back. The SL otherwise would have been very high, above the weekly high.

Right now, there is engulfing on the monthly. But I am not shorting it, because of where the DXY is i.e. lower end of the range.

I don't trade CAD that much, I just take some swing trades outside of my normal intraday EURUSD trades. I'm positive for the year on my swing trades, but not much really. I've taken only few swing trades this year, there has been no great edge for me.

On some of these trades the overnight holding costs were high & the price did not move that much.

Good Afternoon Guys,

I just read that oil prices are at a low this period and the Canadian Dollar is directly correlated to Oil Prices.

So i expect the USD/CAD exchange rate to be bullish.

I will look to go long on USD/CAD

I have spotted areas of value which i have marked with Yellow Circles

i am going to draw a horizontal line at these areas of value

Here you go, Two nice horizontal lines drawn in Purple & yellow Color