✅ 3. Unexpected Safe-Haven Flows
CHF reacts strongly to global fear, even when Switzerland isn’t involved.
Events that cause CHF to strengthen:
Geopolitical tensions (Israel–Iran, Russia–Ukraine, Taiwan risk)
Big stock market crashes (e.g., S&P 500 down sharply)
Sudden risk-off sentiment
If equities fall hard → CHF strengthens → EUR/CHF drops.
This pair is practically a fear barometer.
4. Switzerland Trade Balance
Not widely followed by most traders, but it moves EUR/CHF.
Switzerland often runs a large trade surplus.
A much stronger surplus usually strengthens CHF.
Why?
More exports = more demand for CHF → EUR/CHF dips.