EURUSD outlook

Another reminder of why news risk matters.

My EURUSD bearish setup was valid from a structural perspective.

But during the news release, price expanded violently in both directions.

SL first.

Then TP.

Technical analysis can give you direction, but volatility can destroy your entry before the move happens.

This EURUSD trade hurts differently. 😂

Price swept above my stop during the news volatility and then immediately collapsed.

The original bearish target was eventually reached.

But my position?

Already gone.

SL before TP.

Loss accepted.

EURUSD SELL ❌

Entry: 1.16524

SL: 1.16559

TP: 1.16367

The news spike invalidated my position before price delivered the bearish expansion.

One thing I'm taking from this:

A technically clean setup can still be vulnerable when major news is approaching.

This is now something I need to include more seriously in my trading checklist:

Where is the next major news event relative to my entry?

EURUSD eventually moved exactly in my anticipated direction.

But that didn't matter.

The news volatility took my SL first.

Being right after getting stopped doesn't pay. 😂

Two very different questions:

Was my directional analysis correct?

Yes.

Did I make money from it?

No. 😂

EURUSD swept my SL during the news spike before aggressively selling through my original target.

That's why analysis and execution have to be evaluated separately.

EURUSD gave me a textbook lesson in liquidity during news.

Price violently pushed above the recent highs, took liquidity around my invalidation, and then displaced aggressively lower.

Unfortunately, my SL was part of that liquidity. 😂

Loss taken.

Screenshot saved.

Lesson documented.

I'm not changing my stop-loss rules because of this trade.

The bigger lesson is news exposure.

Widening the SL every time I fear a spike isn't risk management.

Instead, I need clearer rules around whether I want to be exposed when high-impact news is approaching.

That's something worth backtesting.

This EURUSD trade hurts differently. 😂

Price swept above my stop during the news volatility and then immediately collapsed.

The original bearish target was eventually reached.

But my position?

Already gone.

SL before TP.

Loss accepted.

Another loss sponsored by news. 😂

EURUSD spiked straight through my SL before aggressively selling off in the direction I originally anticipated.

Entry: 1.16524

SL: 1.16559

TP: 1.16367

Stopped out first, target taken afterward.

Trading can be disrespectful sometimes. 😂

This really hurts. This is why New York session is always something else. The drop was crazy.

EURUSD just swept your SL to react at the 1.1660 price level for a drop down.

Crazy, really crazy!

EURUSD BUY SETUP 📈

Starting the new month with EURUSD on my watchlist.

Price has already delivered a bullish BOS, confirming the shift in short-term order flow. I'm now looking for price to retrace into my POI before continuing higher.

Entry: 1.16000

SL: 1.15919

TP: 1.16251

Patience now. I don't need to chase price.

The main reason I'm interested in EURUSD buys is structure.

Price swept the low marked X, displaced higher and subsequently broke structure to the upside.

That tells me buyers have gained control of the current dealing range. Now I want a retracement rather than buying at current prices.

The POI Is Clear 🎯

EURUSD has left behind a demand/imbalance area around my 1.16000 entry.

Instead of entering after the bullish expansion, I'd rather allow price to come back into this area.

If it doesn't retrace, I miss the trade.

That's always better than forcing an entry

My EURUSD idea is pretty straightforward:

Liquidity taken below the short-term low → bullish displacement → BOS → wait for mitigation → continuation.

I'm not predicting every candle.

I'm simply waiting for price to return to the location where my risk makes sense.

One thing I'm focusing heavily on is knowing exactly where I'm wrong before taking the trade.

For this EURUSD setup:

Buy: 1.16000

Invalidation/SL: 1.15919

Target: 1.16251

If price trades through my invalidation, the idea is wrong. No emotional attachment.

This setup gives approximately a 1:3.1 risk-to-reward ratio.

Risk: ~8.1 pips

Potential reward: ~25.1 pips

That means I don't need every setup to win.

The job is to consistently execute setups where the potential reward justifies the risk.