EURUSD outlook

EURUSD WATCHLIST 👀

Price is approaching an area where I’ll become much more interested in sells.

I already have:

Bearish structure

Strong high above

Weak low below

Internal liquidity

POI above current price

Now I need price to complete the retracement.

No early entries.

This EURUSD setup is another reminder that analysis and execution are two different things.

I can have a bearish bias right now without immediately pressing sell.

My job is to identify where liquidity is likely being drawn, locate my POI, define invalidation, and then wait.

EURUSD Sell Setup

Entry: 1.16149

SL: 1.16249

TP: 1.15663

R:R: ~1:4.9

The setup is there. Now the market has to come to my price.

Price completed the buys like I shared yesterday. I'll be expecting sells from that region too.

Without the 4hr closing inside the channel, the sells are still on probability. there's a bigger chance of price continuing the rally to the original supply zone I was expecting sells from earlier this week.

This must have taken you out.

It's frustrating man

EURUSD MARKET UPDATE 📊

EURUSD has made a significant move since my earlier analysis.

On the lower timeframe, price has shifted from bearish to bullish after taking the previous low and delivering a CHoCH to the upside.

Price has now pushed into the 1.1638 weak high.

The question now is whether this is simply a retracement or the beginning of a larger bullish expansion.

Zooming out changes the picture.

The 2H structure shows that EURUSD previously produced a strong bullish expansion from the 1.1510 area, breaking structure and eventually creating a high around 1.1710.

That high remains weak.

So despite the recent bearish correction, there is still unswept liquidity sitting considerably higher.

There are two important areas I'm watching now:

Weak High: ~1.1710

Strong Low: ~1.1510

Current price: ~1.1636

Price is effectively trading between these two major liquidity points.

The reaction around current levels should tell me much more about which side the market wants next.

This is where things become interesting.

The 30M structure was bearish:

CHoCH ↓

BOS ↓

Lower lows ↓

But price swept the low around 1.1566 and aggressively reversed.

We have now seen a bullish CHoCH around 1.1625.

That means I'm no longer comfortable blindly selling EURUSD just because the previous structure was bearish.

EURUSD INVALIDATED MY PREVIOUS SELL IDEA

Earlier, I was watching 1.16149 as a potential sell area.

Price has now traded through the POI and broken the structural level around 1.16249.

That's information.

When the market invalidates the setup, I don't argue with it.

The chart has changed, so my analysis has to change with it.

One of the easiest ways to lose money is becoming emotionally attached to your original bias.

I previously had EURUSD sells.

Now price has swept the low, displaced higher and broken the level that supported my bearish idea.

My job isn't to prove the original analysis right.

My job is to react to what price is actually doing.

Price has reached the short-term weak high around 1.1638 after a very aggressive bullish expansion.

I don't want to chase buys here.

Ideally, I want to see what happens after this liquidity is taken.

If EURUSD can hold the new bullish structure on a retracement, then continuation toward higher liquidity becomes increasingly interesting.

The level I'm really interested in isn't necessarily 1.1638.

It's the larger weak high sitting around 1.1710 on the 2H structure.

That's roughly 70+ pips above current price.

If the current bullish shift develops into higher-timeframe continuation, that weak high becomes a logical liquidity objective.

But I still need confirmation before treating it as a guaranteed target.

I'm not interested in forcing an entry after this expansion.

I want to see EURUSD establish a clean bullish range and then give me:

Bias → Bullish confirmation

Liquidity → Clear upside target

POI → Discount retracement

Invalidation → Below the newly protected low

If that develops, I'll start looking for buys rather than chasing price at the highs.

The market has given me new information.

The previous bearish structure produced a low around 1.1566, but price aggressively rejected that area, displaced upward and delivered a bullish lower-timeframe CHoCH.

Short-term liquidity around 1.1638 is now being attacked.

Above that, the larger 2H weak high around 1.1710 remains untouched.

So for now:

2H liquidity target: ~1.1710

Immediate liquidity: ~1.1638

Bullish structural break: ~1.1625

Major strong low: ~1.1510

I'm not forcing another EURUSD trade here. After the recent drawdown, confirmation and quality of execution matter more to me than simply being in the market.

mehn! this is heartbreaking.

mentally draining