EURUSD outlook

I don't want to buy EURUSD simply because price has reached demand.

Location isn't confirmation.

I want price to trade into my POI, show that sellers are losing control, then give me bullish displacement/structure confirmation on the lower timeframe.

That's when the setup becomes interesting.

EURUSD is getting closer to my area of interest.

The current selloff doesn't automatically make me bearish.

If anything, it's bringing price closer to the location where I'm interested in doing business.

Discount → confirmation → buy → weak high.

That's the plan.

The 1.1711 high on EURUSD is weak in my current structure.

That means I'm treating it as potential external liquidity.

But before targeting it, price needs to respect the demand around 1.1579–1.1565.

No reaction, no trade.

One of the biggest mistakes is becoming bearish after price has already sold into your bullish POI.

EURUSD is moving lower, but context matters.

I'm watching the selloff bring price into demand rather than immediately assuming lower prices must continue.

Now I wait for confirmation.

POI: 1.1579–1.1565

Potential direction: BUY 📈

Target: 1.1711

Invalidation: clean loss of the strong low

I'm not predicting that demand must hold.

I'm waiting for price to prove it.

EURUSD is setting up nicely from a liquidity perspective.

We have internal liquidity being delivered into, demand around the protected strong low, and a weak high sitting above at 1.1711.

If buyers defend this area and I get my lower-timeframe confirmation, I'll be looking to ride the move back toward the highs.

Until then, patience. 📈

I'm expecting those sells to continue and for price to take out those lows at 1.1566

EURUSD is not falling that fast because

1. ECB just increased rate today

2. The dollar index has not fully turned bullish, still awaiting September rate hike and CPI tomorrow, so the weaker pair here is Aud not because it is fundamentally weak but it is sentimentally weak , due to the fact that investors are selling aud right now buying USD due to the rate hike expectations, which price can still change direction so watch yields, vix, aud nearest demand, bonds, tomorrow CPI and interest rate if interest rate disagree, CPI disagree , vix fall again below 16 level, bonds go higher, yields fall, that will do two things, EURaud will range, USD quote pairs will regain strength against the dollar but for now look at price from the angle I have spotted out

I'm expecting buys though

That means the sells isn't over yet

The current buys is a pullback for a retest of the trendline it broke out from. Expecting the sell continuations from that 1.1625 supply price level.

Yes , remember tomorrow is CPI and if CPI comes out strong enough then it will push up the odds of fed rate hike, but from ppi I doubt if CPI will be so serious, because it's giving a heads up which it missed by 0.1% this fundamental is very very important, let's just wait till tomorrow, I won't say EU is strong or weak until, CPI and interest rate has confirmed it, and if rate is kept steady EU might either range or change direction, but that will be dependent on us yield, vix reaction and demand for dollar, if vix still drops it gives only one indication that investors are ready to risk more which means demand for dollar will reduce due to less attractive interest rate and yields will drop, this is the future speculation on what I am expecting either ways one will surely happen and that will be my guide

AUDUSD that has been stressing my life whenever I sell it'll hit my SL finally sold. This market can just be stressing you for no reason at all.

That is because you were selling in a wrong market condition, the market was in a risk on environment and you were selling when you should buy, now it's the reverse so start looking for sells

My entries were just too early not that it was in a different market environment.
It was clear it will sell, since NFP last week. The pair has just been dramatic because it is more of a bullish asset, not bearish.

EURUSD SELLS ACTIVE 📉

The setup I've been tracking is now active.

Price has traded into my area of interest and I'm positioned for bearish continuation.

First objective is the weak low around 1.1591, with 1.1579 sitting below as the larger target.

Now I let price do the work.

I'm officially in EURUSD sells.

The entry has been triggered around the 1.1611 area, and price is currently consolidating around my execution.

Entry: ~1.1611

SL: ~1.1618

TP: ~1.1579

Risk is defined. Nothing left to force.

EURUSD is one of those trades where I'm focused heavily on liquidity.

There is a clearly defined weak low around 1.1591 sitting underneath price.

That's my first draw.

If bearish delivery continues through it, I'll be looking toward 1.1579 next.

EURUSD TRADE PLAN 📊

Direction: SELL 📉

Entry: 1.1611 area

SL: 1.1618 area

TP1: 1.1591

TP2: 1.1579

The trade is active.

Now it's about managing the position rather than constantly changing the analysis.

One thing I'm watching closely on EURUSD is how price behaves around the current entry region.

I don't need every candle to immediately run in my direction.

What matters is that my invalidation remains protected and bearish order flow eventually delivers toward the liquidity below.

Patience.