EURUSD outlook

My EURUSD idea is pretty straightforward.

I'm looking for price to trade lower first before considering buys.

Current price: ~1.1611

Sell area: ~1.1615

Downside objective: ~1.1580

Key level: ~1.1579

If price delivers into that key level, I'll reassess for a potential reversal.

Sell first. Buy later.

EURUSD is currently consolidating around the 1.1610–1.1615 region after failing to continue higher.

There's liquidity sitting below current price, and the 1.1579 area remains an important level on my chart.

So rather than buying here, I'm looking for price to deliver lower first.

The short is the first leg of the idea—not necessarily my broader directional expectation.

My first EURUSD opportunity is on the sell side.

Direction: SELL

Entry area: ~1.16156

SL: ~1.16208

TP: ~1.15828

Key level below: ~1.15794

That's roughly 1:6 R:R from the levels marked on my chart.

The objective is to participate in the move toward the liquidity/key level below.

Important distinction with this EURUSD setup:

I'm bearish toward a level, not necessarily bearish indefinitely.

That's something I've been working on with my trading.

Bias doesn't have to mean, "EURUSD must keep falling."

Sometimes the best plan is:

Sell into liquidity → Take profit → Reassess → Trade the next setup.

The area I'm really interested in isn't where EURUSD currently trades.

It's around 1.1579.

That's the key level I'm expecting price to potentially seek before the next meaningful bullish reaction.

If EURUSD sells into that level, I won't automatically buy.

I'll start looking for bullish confirmation.

Big difference.

This is one of those setups where understanding price delivery matters.

I'm willing to sell EURUSD now even though I'm interested in buying lower.

Why?

Because my potential bullish POI hasn't been reached yet.

There's still room for price to deliver lower toward 1.1579.

No reason to anticipate the reversal several pips too early when I can potentially trade the move into it.

If EURUSD reaches the 1.1579 region, I won't blindly hit BUY.

I want the market to give me a reason.

Ideally:

Sell-side liquidity taken → Reaction from the key level → Bullish displacement → Structure shifts bullish → Valid POI forms

Then I can start building the long position around what price actually shows me.

Confirmation > prediction.

Assuming EURUSD delivers lower as expected, the next question becomes:

Can 1.1579 hold?

If buyers step in and structure turns bullish from there, I'll switch sides.

My initial upside objective would be the liquidity resting back above the current range, with the 1.1640 region becoming interesting.

One market.

Two separate opportunities.

This is how I'm mapping EURUSD:

Phase 1: Sell from ~1.1615

Phase 2: Target ~1.1580

Phase 3: Watch the 1.1579 key level

Phase 4: Wait for bullish confirmation

Phase 5: Buy if structure supports it

Phase 6: Target higher liquidity

I don't need price to follow the exact path I've drawn.

I need it to reach my areas and give me confirmation.

EURUSD is giving me a two-sided opportunity.

My immediate bias is bearish because I see room for price to trade from the current consolidation toward the 1.1579 key level.

So the first setup I'm watching is:

📉 SELL: ~1.16156

🛑 SL: ~1.16208

🎯 TP: ~1.15828

But if price reaches the key level and gives me the bullish confirmation I require, I'll happily flip my bias and start looking for longs.

That's the important part.

I'm not trying to predict one direction for the entire week. I'm trading price from one objective to the next.

For now: sell to the key level. Then let price tell me whether it's time to buy.

Price has hit my sl and it has turned bullish. I will wait for confirmation before considering the buys