Market Analysis

GBPCAD BEARISH SETUP 📉

GBPCAD is on my sell watchlist.

The 1H structure has already shifted bearish after price broke the previous structural low with strong displacement.

Now price is retracing, but the bearish structure remains intact.

I'm looking for opportunities to sell the retracement rather than chase price lower.

Entry - 1.87060

Sl - 1.87194

Tp - 1.86078

HIGHER TIMEFRAME BIAS

My GBPCAD bias starts from the 1H.

We had a clear CHoCH followed by aggressive bearish displacement, showing that sellers had taken control.

Until price gives me evidence that this bearish structure has changed, I'm treating rallies as potential selling opportunities.

Bias first. Entry second.

There's a weak low sitting around 1.8658 on the 15M.

That's important.

Weak lows represent liquidity, and with the current bearish structure, that liquidity remains an obvious downside objective.

I'm watching to see whether price retraces into supply before eventually attacking that low

GBPCAD is currently around 1.8685.

Could price continue falling immediately? Absolutely.

But I'm more interested in getting price higher into my POI around 1.8706–1.8719.

If price reaches that area and gives bearish confirmation, the R:R becomes much more attractive.

No need to chase.

The setup currently looks like this:

Bias: Bearish

HTF: 1H

Entry TF: 15M

Structure: Bearish

POI: 1.8706–1.8719 region

Liquidity: Weak low around 1.8658

Extended target: ~1.8608

Now I'm waiting for price to deliver the entry conditions.

STRUCTURE + LIQUIDITY + POI

These are the three things I'm focusing on with GBPCAD.

Structure: Bearish

Liquidity: Resting below price

POI: Supply above current price

That's the alignment I want.

If price retraces into supply and sellers step back in, I'll be looking for continuation toward the liquidity below.

GBPCAD has bounced from the recent low, but that doesn't automatically make the market bullish.

Context matters.

On the higher timeframe, the dominant move remains bearish.

For me, this current recovery is potentially just a retracement into supply until structure proves otherwise.

Ideally, GBPCAD trades higher into the 1.8706–1.8719 POI.

Once there, I'll drop my attention to the lower timeframe and look for:

Liquidity sweep → bearish displacement → CHoCH/MSS → retracement → sell.

I don't need to predict the top.

I need confirmation that sellers have returned.

If my bearish scenario plays out, the first obvious objective is the weak low around 1.8658.

If that liquidity gets taken and bearish momentum continues, I can then look toward the deeper liquidity around 1.8608.

One target at a time.

Let price determine how much of the move I get.

I'm maintaining a bearish outlook on GBPCAD.

The 1H has already shown a bearish structural shift, while the 15M continues to show weakness.

My ideal scenario:

Retracement → Supply/POI → Bearish confirmation → Sell → Weak low → External liquidity.

I'm not interested in forcing the setup.

If price gives me my model, I execute.

If it doesn't, I stay out.

Direction comes from structure.

Location comes from the POI.

Targets come from liquidity.

Execution comes from confirmation.

EURGBP UPDATE 📊

Remember my EURGBP buy setup from Friday?

I got stopped out, not because price cleanly invalidated the idea, but because the market-opening spread widened enough to hit my stop.

Now price has finally traded into the area of interest I was originally watching.

No immediate re-entry.

I want to see the reaction first.

EURGBP has now reached my POI around the 0.8573 region.

This was the area I wanted price to trade into before potentially continuing higher.

After Friday's stop-out, I'm not interested in jumping straight back in.

I'll let price show me whether buyers are actually present here.

A STOP LOSS DOESN'T ALWAYS MEAN THE ANALYSIS WAS WRONG

Friday's EURGBP trade was a good reminder of this.

The position was stopped by the spread around the market open.

Now, a few days later, price has delivered into the POI I was originally targeting for the setup.

That's trading.

The focus isn't proving I was right.

The focus is executing correctly when the next opportunity appears.

It's tempting to see EURGBP reach my original POI after being stopped and immediately buy again.

I'm not doing that.

The market doesn't owe me a winning trade because the previous position was stopped.

I need fresh confirmation.

If buyers show themselves, I'll reconsider the long.

If they don't, I stay out.

EURGBP AT DEMAND 🎯

Price has now pushed directly into my marked demand/POI around 0.8573–0.8568.

This is where things get interesting.

The higher objective remains the weak high around 0.8608, but price first needs to prove that this demand can hold.

Location is there.

Now I need confirmation.

WHAT I'M WATCHING NOW

EURGBP is at the area I wanted.

From here, I'm watching for:

Liquidity reaction → bullish displacement → lower-timeframe CHoCH/MSS → BOS → retracement into a fresh POI.

If I get that sequence, I'll have a reason to consider buying again.

Until then, I'm just observing.

PATIENCE AFTER A LOSS

One of the easiest mistakes after getting stopped is trying to win the money back from the same pair.

That's not my objective with EURGBP.

I'm treating this as an entirely new setup.

Friday is finished.

If today's price action confirms another buy, I'll take it based on today's information — not Friday's emotions.

The 0.8608 weak high remains an obvious liquidity objective above EURGBP.

But just because liquidity exists above doesn't mean price has to travel there immediately.

Price is currently inside my area of interest.

If demand holds and bullish structure returns, that weak high becomes my primary upside draw again.

THIS IS WHY I MARK MY LEVELS

I marked this EURGBP area before price arrived.

Now price has traded directly back into it.

That doesn't mean I automatically buy.

The level gives me location, not execution.

Execution comes from how price behaves once it reaches the level.

That's the difference between anticipating a setup and confirming one.

Friday's position was stopped by market-opening spread.

Today, EURGBP has finally reached the 0.8573–0.8568 area of interest I was watching.

My plan now:

POI reached ✅

Observe reaction ⏳

Wait for bullish confirmation ⏳

Look for a protected low ⏳

Target weak high around 0.8608 if confirmed 🎯

I'm not buying simply because price reached demand.

I want the market to show me that buyers are willing to defend it.

The POI gets my attention.

Confirmation gets my money.