Market Analysis

GBPCAD PLAN FOR THE WEEK 📉

My bias remains bearish while price respects the structure shown on the 1H.

Ideally, I want to see a retracement toward 1.88326, followed by bearish confirmation and continuation.

Entry: 1.88326

Stop Loss: 1.88484

Take Profit: 1.87837

The analysis gives me the direction.

The retracement gives me the location.

The confirmation gives me the reason to execute.

did the sells trigger?

I'm watching out for buys but will wait for the Bearish trendline to the invalidated. But if it breaks the support, then I'll look out for sell continuations.

Price is just selling without retracing. this is one of those times where price doesn't come to your entry

Yeah. and today is the last trading day of the month of August, so there won't really be a good setup or price doing any good retracements. It will just be flowing.
Tomorrow will likely start with buys at that 1.8777 price level.

Yeah maybe

EURCAD is firmly on my radar.

The overall order flow remains bearish, and price has continued delivering lower highs and lower lows.

Rather than chase the move down here, I'm waiting for a retracement into my POI.

Entry: 1.61119

SL: 1.61228

TP: 1.60783

Patience until price comes to me.

The structure on EURCAD is pretty clear.

Price has been consistently repricing lower, and every significant bullish retracement has struggled to change the bearish order flow.

I'm treating the current bounce as a retracement until price proves otherwise.

Still looking for sells.

There's something important sitting above current price:

IRL.

Price has internal liquidity around the 1.6105–1.6108 region, which could potentially attract price higher before another bearish expansion.

That's why I'm not interested in chasing sells at 1.6097.

Let liquidity do its job first.

My preferred sell entry sits around 1.61119.

Current price is still below that level, meaning I don't have the location I want yet.

If EURCAD retraces into the POI, I'll have a much cleaner risk profile.

If price dumps without me?

That's fine.

Missing a trade is cheaper than forcing one.

Before the trade even triggers, I know where I'm wrong.

Sell: 1.61119

SL: 1.61228

TP: 1.60783

That's roughly 10.9 pips risk for approximately 33.6 pips reward, giving the setup around a 1:3.1 R:R.

Now it's simply about execution.

I'm not selling EURCAD just because price has already fallen.

I'm looking at:

Bearish order flow → lower lows → internal liquidity above → retracement into POI → potential continuation lower.

The market has already shown direction.

I'm waiting for location.

EURCAD has already delivered a significant bearish expansion.

It's tempting to see momentum like this and immediately hit sell.

But entering after expansion usually means worse positioning and worse R:R.

I'd rather see price retrace toward 1.61119 before considering the short.

Price first. Entry second.

My downside objective sits around 1.60783.

If sellers regain control after the retracement, that's the first area I'm interested in seeing price attack.

There is also a larger strong low visible further below on the chart.

For now, though, I'm trading the immediate range rather than getting greedy.

Current price is around 1.60971, meaning EURCAD still needs to retrace before reaching my planned entry.

This is where patience matters.

I already have:

Direction ✅

POI ✅

Entry ✅

Invalidation ✅

Target ✅

There's nothing left to manufacture.

Wait for price.

EURCAD remains bearish from my perspective.

Price has been consistently delivering lower, leaving internal liquidity above the current market. I'm looking for that liquidity/retracement to potentially take price back toward my sell POI before bearish continuation.

EURCAD SELL 📉

Entry: 1.61119

Stop Loss: 1.61228

Take Profit: 1.60783

R:R: ~1:3.1

I don't need to catch the exact top or bottom.

I need a repeatable setup with clear structure, defined invalidation and asymmetric risk-to-reward.

Price just got triggered. Let's see how it goes

Another setup on my radar today — NZDUSD.

The overall order flow remains bearish, but price is already trading near the lows, so I'm not interested in chasing sells.

I want the retracement first.

Entry: 0.59210

SL: 0.59294

TP: 0.58904

Let price come to me.

Looking at the 30M structure, sellers are still clearly in control.

We've seen successive bearish expansions, lower highs and lower lows.

The current bounce doesn't automatically change that.

Until structure tells me otherwise, I'm treating bullish movement as a retracement within bearish order flow.

I can have the correct bearish bias and still take a bad trade if I enter at the wrong location.

NZDUSD is currently around 0.59015, well below my preferred sell entry.

That's why I'm waiting for price around 0.59210.

Correct direction + poor entry can still equal a poor trade.

I actually want NZDUSD to move higher from here.

Not because my bias has changed.

I want price to retrace because my POI is sitting above current market price.

A push toward 0.59210 would bring price back into the area where I'm interested in executing the short.

Sometimes you need price to move against your bias before it can give you the trade.