Market Analysis

PROFIT PROTECTED. NOW I OBSERVE. 👀

EURGBP buys gave me an opportunity to secure partials while trailing my stop.

Now I'm back to observation mode.

The market is essentially sitting between:

🔴 Supply / strong high above

🟢 Weak low and demand below

I'm not forcing another position in the middle.

I'll wait for structure to reveal the next high-probability move.

I actually deleted my order because price was seriously ranging yesterday, I will wait for a clear price movement

I initially expected price to potentially sweep the resistance/strong high before selling off, but price had other plans.

The resistance was respected directly and sellers are already reacting from the area.

Bearish bias remains intact.

NZDUSD has given a clean reaction from my area of interest.

Instead of sweeping the high, price respected the resistance and immediately started delivering lower.

Entry: ~0.5851

SL: ~0.5858

TP: ~0.5803

Now I want to see continued bearish displacement.

One important lesson from NZDUSD today:

Price doesn't always have to sweep the liquidity you're watching before moving in your anticipated direction.

I expected a possible sweep of the high, but resistance held without it.

The narrative matters more than forcing one specific entry model.

The structure on NZDUSD remains bearish.

We already had bearish BOS, price retraced into resistance/supply, and sellers have now responded from that area.

The weak low around 0.5830 is the first liquidity objective.

If that gets taken, I'll be watching for continuation toward 0.5803.

NZDUSD SELL 📉

Entry: 0.5851 area

Stop Loss: 0.5858

Take Profit: 0.5803

Price respected resistance instead of sweeping the high.

As long as the supply remains protected, I'm expecting price to continue seeking liquidity lower.

Something I constantly remind myself:

My job isn't to tell the market exactly how it must move.

I had the bearish direction right, but expected price to sweep the high first.

Instead, resistance held immediately.

Adapt to the information price gives you.

NZDUSD is showing why I separate bias from execution.

My bias was bearish because of the existing structure and supply above.

My preferred execution involved a possible liquidity sweep.

The sweep didn't happen, but the bearish narrative is still playing out.

That's an important distinction.

NZDUSD sellers are defending the 0.5851–0.5857 resistance region.

Below price, we have a weak low around 0.5830, making it an obvious short-term draw on liquidity.

Beyond that, my larger target sits around 0.5803.

Let's see whether sellers can deliver.

Trade idea — NZDUSD

Sell: ~0.5851

SL: ~0.5858

TP1: ~0.5830 weak low

TP2: ~0.5803

The setup remains valid to me while price continues respecting the resistance and bearish order flow remains intact.

EURGBP is back on my watchlist today.

Despite yesterday’s bullish reaction, the bigger picture hasn’t changed for me. Supply is still in control, and price is now trading back into an area where I’m interested in sells.

I’m looking for bearish continuation from here. 📉

My EURGBP thesis is straightforward:

Supply remains in control → price retraces into supply → sellers defend the area → bearish structure continues → liquidity below becomes the draw.

If price invalidates the supply, I’m wrong.

No attachment. No fighting price.

Eurgbp is Just ranging not that is actually bearish because ecb rate news is coming out today and if the data supports EUR that will give a more push upwards, so I don't really see a sell on that pair because the higher timeframe is still bullish

NZDCAD has started the retracement I was waiting for.

The bigger structure remains bearish, but there’s room for price to retrace higher into premium before another potential selloff.

I’m looking to participate in that retracement.

Entry: ~0.8059

SL: ~0.8048

TP: ~0.8111

NZDCAD is a good example of trading the retracement without confusing it with the overall bias.

My immediate expectation is bullish, but the objective is to buy price back into premium.

Once we get there, the market will need to be reassessed.

NZDCAD BUY SETUP 📈

Entry: 0.8059 area

Stop Loss: 0.8048

Take Profit: 0.8111

Price has reacted from the discount area and the retracement is beginning.

I'm targeting the premium side of the range.

I’m buying NZDCAD, but context matters.

This isn't necessarily me calling for a complete bullish reversal.

I’m trading the move from discount → premium.

Once price reaches premium, I'll watch closely for what structure does next.